The outlook for the economy this year depends more on the progress of vaccination against Covid 19 than on infections. On the vaccine supply side, for developed countries this looks adequate from the second quarter of the year, with contracted deliveries more than sufficient to vaccinate their entire population by 2021.

China and Russia, which produce vaccines, would also have adequate supplies. In emerging economies the picture is different. There is a group of countries that could obtain enough to vaccinate almost two-thirds of their population before the end of the year, while the rest of the countries will have much less availability and could reach about 40% of their population.

In the case of Chile, President Sebastián Piñera announced that 15 million people (78% of the population) would be vaccinated by June 30, with 1.6 million doses from Pfizer by March 31, 5 million doses from Sinovac from the end of January and Oxford Astra Zeneca vaccines from February-March. Vaccine manufacturers expect annual capacity to reach 11 billion doses by the end of 2021.