Fynsa
It seems that after years of constitutional uncertainty and failed reforms, the market perceives greater institutional clarity, coupled with converging downward rates. If these conditions consolidate, the dollar could move toward more "normal" ranges, even closer to $800 in the medium term.
The dollar remains high, but the fundamentals behind that level may be starting to change, with key movements in rates, commodities and the political landscape.
The dollar remains high in Chile, but fundamentals are starting to line up for a possible break towards $900.
More than a symbolic gesture, the measure represents a concrete step towards normalization. This greater flexibility allows the exchange rate to adjust according to market conditions, without abandoning stability altogether.
The Chilean peso is particularly vulnerable to a new tariff escalation by the Donald Trump administration, given its direct link to China.
The Central Bank of Chile has resumed the reduction of interest rates, which has led to a greater relevance of the UF and short-term bonds as conservative investment alternatives.
The outcome of the plebiscite should have a positive impact on the markets, under the assumption of lower uncertainty and risk premiums in the future due to the expectation of a more moderate new constitution.
