Although there are still nearly three weeks to go before the new government led by José Antonio Kast takes office, the market and trade associations are already placing their bets on the changes that the new cycle could bring. 

In this regard, the appointment of Iván Poduje as Minister of Housing and Urban Development has not been without media attention, and it is expected that during his term he will usher in a new era for the real estate sector and housing policy in Chile. An architect and urban planner with a background in territorial planning and urban regeneration, and a style that has so far been confrontational and direct, his arrival is generating expectations mainly in four key areas: subsidies, permitting, housing deficit, and urban development. 

Subsidies and aid: Reorganization rather than expansion? 

On this point, Poduje has been critical of policies that, while seeking to expand access to housing, ultimately end up putting pressure on housing prices or creating distortions in the market.  

In this regard, it is expected that his approach will be based on prioritizing efficiency in the allocation of subsidies, with greater targeting. In addition, he has not only criticized the current government for its intention to cut housing subsidies in the face of the 2026 housing program, but he is also expected to promote instruments that activate supply and not just demand, along with other formulas that facilitate the absorption of finished stock.  

Rather than an expansive shift in aid, the market anticipates a redesign that links subsidies to effective production and strategic location. 

Permits: The major bottleneck 

One of the main structural challenges and headaches currently facing the real estate sector, and where the market is waiting for clear signals from the new minister, is in the area of permitting.   

Over the last decade, the time required to obtain building permits has increased significantly. What used to take 6 to 8 months can now take more than 12 to 18 months in many municipalities just to complete the paperwork at the Municipal Works Department (DOM), not to mention the time required to obtain other types of permits such as favorable construction reports (IFC); sectoral permits (roads, Serviu, sanitation, electricity); environmental assessments when applicable; and approvals of preliminary projects, subdivisions, or land use changes. 

For medium- or large-scale projects, the entire cycle prior to the start of construction can take between 24 and 36 months, and even longer if there are repeated observations or changes in criteria. The impacts of this are reflected in higher financial costs for the project and regulatory risks, which also affect the final price of the homes. 

In addition to longer deadlines, the sector has faced increased litigation, permit revocations, and regulatory reinterpretations, creating a highly uncertain environment. 

In this scenario, the new mandate is expected to have a technical focus aimed at:  

• Reduce effective processing times.
• Standardize criteria among municipalities. 
• Limit the discretionary interpretation of regulations (zoning plan, OGUC, etc.).  
• Digitize processes and set maximum response times. 
• Review the overlap of sectoral permits. 

The expectation is not deregulation, but greater certainty and predictability. In the real estate sector, there is consensus that unlocking supply requires greater institutional efficiency rather than new subsidies.  

Housing deficit and access to housing 

Chile faces a significant structural housing deficit that has been exacerbated by other events in recent years, such as the fires in the Valparaíso and Bio Bío regions and the eviction of squatters. In addition, access to housing has deteriorated due to variables such as interest rates, inflation, lower savings capacity, and greater banking restrictions. 

The challenge here will be twofold: the aim would be to increase annual housing construction in a sustained manner and facilitate access for middle-income sectors that are currently outside the system. 

To this end, a combined strategy could be considered: 

• Greater incentives for integration projects. 
• Greater public-private collaboration. 
• Review of urban planning requirements that increase the cost of the final product. 
• Instruments that allow for more flexible financing. 

To achieve this, the focus will likely be on restoring the pace of construction and improving the economic viability of projects. 

Urban planning and development in agricultural areas 

One of the most sensitive issues is urban expansion and the use of agricultural land. Poduje has taken a clear stance on the need for coherent territorial planning and avoiding disorderly growth. 

Among the main guidelines he has set out prior to the start of his term is to prioritize regulating and organizing the "silent expansion" of cities into peripheral areas, where growth tends to occur in an unregulated manner on previously agricultural land. 

He has also stated that he prefers to prioritize housing over "environmental activism," referring to his disagreement with delaying or canceling developments that help solve the country's housing deficit in order to protect certain natural resources (such as trees or archaeological finds) which, in his opinion, act as bureaucratic barriers or "permitology." These statements have had some media consequences. 

In conclusion, Iván Poduje's mandate could mark a shift toward more technical and structural management of Minvu. Rather than short-term expansionary policies, the market anticipates reforms aimed at unlocking supply, streamlining planning, and improving the efficiency of the system. 

For developers, investors, and financial actors, the coming months will be key to understanding whether this approach will translate into greater regulatory certainty and a recovery in real estate momentum. 

José Pablo González 
Portfolio Manager, Private Debt, Fynsa AGF