First, the good news. In the latest update of its World Economic Outlook, the IMF projects GDP growth of 6.3% in Latin America and the Caribbean this year and 3% by 2022. Now the bad news: this growth will not be linear and will vary depending on several factors, including Covid vaccination levels.

The IMF highlights the case of economies that are heavily dependent on tourism, such as those in the Caribbean, which will see a relatively slow recovery. Projections for the flow of tourists to these countries for 2021 estimate that they will be 60% below pre-pandemic levels.

The risk skew of the IMF's estimates for the region is negative: For the recovery to be sustainable, government support programs need to be replaced by an increase in private demand. What happens in China and the United States, Latin America and the Caribbean's two largest trading partners, will also set the tone for the economy's recovery.