First, the good news. In its latest World Economic Outlook update, the IMF projects GDP growth of 6.3% in Latin America and the Caribbean for this year and 3% for 2022. Now for the bad news: this growth will not be linear and will vary depending on several factors, including Covid vaccination levels.

The IMF highlights the case of economies that are heavily dependent on tourism, such as those in the Caribbean, which will see a relatively slow recovery. Projections for tourist flows to these countries in 2021 estimate that they will be at 60% of pre-pandemic levels.

The risk bias of the IMF's estimates for the region is negative: for the recovery to be sustainable, government support programs need to be replaced by an increase in private demand. What happens in China and the United States, Latin America and the Caribbean's two largest trading partners, will also set the tone for the economic recovery.