With the results of last weekend's four elections fresh from Servel, FYNSA organized a virtual meeting on Monday, May 17, in which our chief economist, Nathan Pincheira, spoke with political scientist Kenneth Bunker about the political process that will unfold in the coming months.

The results in general, and those of the Constituent Assembly in particular, were far from analysts' predictions, Bunker emphasized. Given the significant victory of the independents, he points out, it will be necessary to begin identifying them in order to try to gauge how they will vote during the process.

In addition to the unexpected victory of the independents, the new political landscape has been shaped by the advance of the Broad Front and the Communist Party, the low vote for the center-right, which failed to reach the one-third it sought in the Convention to force the negotiation of more radical proposals, and the weakening of the center-left.

Most of the independents elected lean to the left, but Bunker says that a multidimensional analysis will be necessary to glimpse how they will align themselves during the discussion of the new Constitution. Under the new scenario, the left, rather than drafting proposals and then negotiating with the right, would seek to make more structural changes. What can we expect from independents in this process? For Bunker, it is important to bear in mind that, in general terms, not all independents have such a negative view of the model. 

The three main areas of discussion at the Convention will be:

Greater equity in spending, with an emphasis on housing, health, and education, areas in which the left will take the lead.

The political organization of the state, where we can expect greater discussion among all sectors.

Fiscal structure, central bank autonomy, and property rights. Changes in these areas would not necessarily be radical, as it is not a question of abandoning what has enabled Chile to grow.

The focus now is on seeing how the Convention will function and the role of the two-thirds agreement in achieving approval of the articles that will be included in the new Constitution. It is likely that one of the positions of president and vice president of the Convention will be held by a woman and possibly by an academic. It is also worth remembering that the convention delegates will have external advice on constitutional issues.