With the results of last weekend’s four elections just released by Servel, FYNSA organized a virtual meeting on Monday, May 17, during which our chief economist, Nathan Pincheira, spoke with political scientist Kenneth Bunker about the political process that lies ahead in the coming months.

The results in general—and those of the Constituent Assembly in particular—were far from analysts' predictions, Bunker emphasized. Given the significant victory of the independents, he notes, it will be necessary to begin identifying them in order to try to gauge how they will vote during the process.

In addition to the unexpected victory of the independents, the new political landscape has been shaped by the gains made by the Frente Amplio and the Communist Party, the poor showing of the center-right—which failed to secure the one-third majority it sought in the Convention to force negotiations on potentially more radical proposals—and the weakening of the center-left.

Most of the elected independents lean to the left, but, according to Bunker, a multidimensional analysis will be necessary to gauge how they will align themselves during the debate on the new Constitution. Under the new scenario, the left—rather than drafting proposals to later negotiate with the right—would seek to make more structural changes. What can we expect from the independents in this process? According to Bunker, it’s important to keep in mind that, generally speaking, not all independents have such a negative view of the model. 

The three main topics of discussion at the Convention will be:

Greater equity in spending, with an emphasis on housing, health care, and education—areas in which the left will take the lead.

The political organization of the state, where we can expect more discussion among all sectors.

Fiscal structure, central bank independence, and property rights. Changes in these areas would not necessarily be radical, since the goal is not to abandon the factors that have enabled Chile’s growth.

The focus now is on how the Convention will function and the role of the two-thirds majority requirement in securing approval for the articles that will make up the new Constitution. It is likely that one of the positions—either president or vice president of the Convention—will be held by a woman and possibly by an academic. It is also important to remember that the members of the Constitutional Convention will have access to external advice on constitutional matters.