Local equities
April 23, 2021 - 2 min

RVL Strategy: Overweight Commodity Sector

The commodities sector remains our favorite

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In local equities, our base scenario considers a 2021 IPSA target of 5,200 points (+7.0%).. The domestic scenario will continue to be complex due to the political and institutional challenges we face in the coming months, but the external scenario offers some compensation.. Valuations remain attractive in a long-term context both in absolute terms and Latam buyable (25% discount in B/L terms).

Expected earnings continue to be revised upward. Improved momentum of results and expectationswhich has translated into improved cash flow dynamics.

Whether or not the third withdrawal of pension funds or other alternatives that are currently on the table are approved, and with quarantines extending for longer, it is likely that the government will have to make an even greater fiscal effort, thus strengthening an already abundant liquidity environment, it is likely that the government will still have to make an even greater effort in fiscal terms, thus strengthening an already abundant liquidity environment.

In terms of sectors, this year the improvement in the most cyclical sectors affected by the pandemic, such as consumer discretionary, real estate and financials, has been consolidating.

However, the commodities sector remains our favorite and should continue to outperform, as the outlook for underlyings such as pulp and wood (CMPC, COPEC), iron (CAP), copper and lithium (SQM) has been strengthening further, there is room for multiple expansion and we prefer to be more exposed to the external cycle.