The global energy transition will bring about a profound change in the market for certain metals and minerals, including copper and lithium—in the production of which Chile plays a leading role—according to a recent report (https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions/executive-summary) from the International Energy Agency (IEA). The agency forecasts a sharp increase in demand for certain minerals that are key to the new energy sector. In the IEA’s so-called “declared policies” scenario—which reflects the intentions and objectives announced to date—demand for lithium from the energy sector by 2040 will be 13 times higher than it is today, and demand for copper will be twice as high. In the sustainable development scenario—which involves strengthened policies and investments in clean energy—the energy sector’s demand for lithium in 2040 will be 42 times higher than in 2020, and demand for copper will be three times higher. These projections have significant implications. Production of these minerals—and other critical ones, such as graphite, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth elements—is heavily concentrated among a few producers, which will create significant risks in the supply chain. Among other things, the agency recommends that countries build strategic reserves of these raw materials, encourage investment in geographically more diversified production projects, promote research and innovation throughout the supply chain, and support the recycling industry for these materials.
