Today, it was announced that as of yesterday, more than 9,000 new cases of COVID-19 had been reported, with a positivity rate of 11.3%. Unfortunately, it was also reported that 129 people lost their lives to the disease. Considering the data since the start of the pandemic, we are still in the midst of a second wave, which appears to be even more severe than the first. Let’s not think of ourselves as so “special”: this was the reality for most developed countries when they experienced their second wave of infections. In fact, in both Europe and the U.S., the number of infections and deaths relative to their populations more than doubled Chile’s current figures.

However, this is no consolation. Not only are the capacities of our health care systems very different (hospital occupancy today is reportedly over 95%), but so are the epidemiological situations. Let me explain: our second wave is arriving even after the third waves experienced in developed economies, where vaccination campaigns are already underway, but our second wave does not seem to be subsiding as quickly as the third waves did in other countries.

In a simple analysis, we compared the trajectory of infections since the start of mass vaccination campaigns in countries that have had vaccination rates similar to ours. Thus, after reaching more than 1,000 daily cases per million inhabitants, Israel experienced a significant decline starting on the 50th day after beginning its vaccination campaign: by the 60th day, the number had fallen to less than half, and by the 100th day, new infections were below 40 per million inhabitants. The United Kingdom, after reaching a peak in infections on day 20 of its vaccination campaign (900 new cases per million inhabitants), began to see a significant decline in this metric, reaching 150 cases per million by day 60. Chile, meanwhile, 65 days into its mass vaccination program, still shows no signs of having reached the peak of the second wave. Today, we are recording just under 400 cases per million inhabitants, with nearly 40 doses administered per 100 inhabitants. While it is true that Israel, when it had those same numbers, had twice as many cases, it was showing a clear downward trend.

So what’s going on? Much of it may be due to our behavior. With more restrictions than a year ago, mobility has not dropped to the levels seen back then. There is fatigue, discontent, and economic hardship, but also a lack of civic commitment, as evidenced by the numerous clandestine parties, gatherings, and events reported in the press, coupled with the exploitation of personal and group permits—which, moreover, have not been accompanied by strict enforcement by the authorities.

But it may also be due to the vaccine we’re using. “Engel et al.” (2021) show that Sinovac’s actual efficacy is 53%, far below the 90% seen with Pfizer or Moderna. Furthermore, it would only reach that level of efficacy 14 days after the second dose (that is, approximately 45 days after the first dose), while Pfizer would reach its full efficacy 30 days after the first dose. Does this mean that Sinovac is bad? No, not at all. It simply takes longer for its effectiveness to become apparent, which might not be as noticeable in infection rates at first, but should be evident in ICU occupancy and deaths. Unfortunately, the available data does not yet allow us to make that distinction. If this hypothesis is correct, we estimate that within 15 days, the most severe cases should begin to drop dramatically among the vaccinated population, provided that the average vaccination rate continues and does not continue to decline as we have seen over the past week.

Nathan Pincheira

Chief Economist at Fynsa