Today, it was announced that as of yesterday, more than 9,000 new cases of COVID-19 had been reported, with a positivity rate of 11.3%. Unfortunately, it was also reported that 129 people lost their lives as a result of the disease. Considering the data since the beginning of the pandemic, we are still in the midst of a second wave, which is even more severe than the first. Let's not feel so "special": this was the reality for most developed countries when they experienced the second wave of infections. In fact, in both Europe and the US, the number of infections and deaths relative to their populations more than doubled Chile's current figures.

However, this is no consolation. Not only are the capacities of health systems very different (today, hospital occupancy would exceed 95%), but so are the epidemiological moments. Let me explain: our second wave is arriving even after the third waves experienced in developed economies, with vaccination programs already underway, but our second wave does not seem to be subsiding as quickly as the third waves did in other countries.

In a simple exercise, we compared the trajectory of infections since the start of mass vaccination programs for countries that have had vaccination rates similar to ours. Thus, after reaching more than 1,000 daily cases per million inhabitants, Israel experienced a significant decline 50 days after beginning its vaccination program: after 60 days, it had less than half that number, and after 100 days, new infections were less than 40 per million inhabitants. The United Kingdom, after reaching a peak of infections on the 20th day after starting vaccination (900 new cases per million inhabitants), began to significantly decrease this metric, reaching 150 cases per million on the 60th day. For its part, Chile, 65 days after starting its mass program, still shows no evidence of having reached the peak of the second wave. Today, we are recording just under 400 cases per million inhabitants, with almost 40 doses administered per 100 inhabitants. While it is true that Israel, showing the same numbers, had twice as many cases, it was clearly on a downward trend.

So what is happening? Much of it may be due to our behavior. With more restrictions than a year ago, mobility has not been reduced to the levels experienced at that time. There is fatigue, discontent, and economic hardship, but also a weak civic commitment, as evidenced by the numerous parties, gatherings, and clandestine events reported in the press, coupled with the use of personal and collective leave, which has not been accompanied by strict enforcement by the authorities.

But it may also be due to the vaccine we are using. Engel et al (2021) show that the actual efficacy of Sinovac is 53%, far from the 90% of Pfizer or Moderna. Furthermore, it would only reach that efficacy 14 days after the second dose (i.e., approximately 45 days after the first dose), while Pfizer would reach its effectiveness 30 days after the first dose. Does this mean that Sinovac is bad? No, not at all. It just takes longer for its effectiveness to be reflected, which would not be so noticeable in infections at first, but should be noticeable in ICU occupancy and deaths. Unfortunately, the available data does not allow us to make that distinction at this time. If this theory is correct, we estimate that within 15 days, the most serious cases should begin to fall dramatically among the vaccinated population, as long as the average vaccination rate continues and does not continue to fall as we have seen in the last week.

Nathan Pincheira

Chief Economist at Fynsa