Will oil reach US$100 per barrel by the end of the year? Who would have thought it after the prices seen in 2020—with futures prices in negative territory just 18 months ago due to the storage crisis—but Goldman Sachs believes it could reach US$90 per barrel and Bank of America does not rule out reaching the US$100 mark. In any case, Brent crude oil occasionally reached US$80 per barrel at the end of September.

What happened? A combination of a sharp increase in demand—due to economic recovery and climate issues—and supply constraints caused by logistical problems and OPEC+ production quotas. And it's not just oil. The price of natural gas is also rising sharply and promises to create turbulence and more inflation.

The outlook is that demand for oil and gas will continue to grow, but with ups and downs, especially now that we are entering the northern hemisphere winter. In any case, industry experts expect global oil consumption to return to pre-pandemic levels by the second half of 2022.

Graph: Oil price (Brent, US$ per barrel)