Will oil reach US$100 per barrel by the end of the year? Who would have thought it after the prices we saw in 2020—with futures prices turning negative just 18 months ago due to the storage crisis—but Goldman Sachs believes it could reach $90 per barrel, and Bank of America does not rule out hitting the $100 mark. In any case, Brent crude occasionally reached $80 per barrel in late September.

What happened? A combination of a sharp increase in demand—driven by the economic recovery and climate-related issues—and supply constraints caused by logistical problems and OPEC+ production quotas. And it’s not just oil. The price of natural gas is also rising sharply and is likely to cause turbulence and further inflation.

The outlook is that demand for oil and gas will continue to grow, but with some ups and downs, especially now that we are entering the northern hemisphere winter. In any case, industry experts expect that, in the case of oil, global consumption will return to pre-pandemic levels by the second half of 2022.

Chart: Oil Price (Brent, U.S. dollars per barrel)