This Sunday, November 21, Chile will once again celebrate a celebration of democracy. This time, it will be nothing less than general elections: for president and Congress, as well as regional councilors. An election of this kind is always important, but it is likely even more so this time, given the political, social, and public health context we are facing. 

Perhaps out of habit, most attention is focused on the presidential race. As we haven’t seen in a long time, the first round is shaping up to be extremely competitive and uncertain, according to the polls (which have been heavily criticized, but if anyone knows of a better tool, I invite them to share it). To avoid being biased toward one candidate or another, we’re using the aggregated poll data provided by Tres Quintos, which shows a near tie for first place: Boric leads with nearly 23% of the vote, followed by Kast with 22%. In third place is Provoste with 11%, while Sichel, with 8%, comes in fourth, not far behind Parisi (7%). We haven’t seen this kind of vote dispersion before, which—combined with the high percentage of undecided voters—means that the only certainty regarding the first-round results is that we’re in for more than a few surprises. As Kenneth Bunker points out, given the same political, social, and public health context I mentioned above, it’s not possible to make reasonable projections—not because the polls are bad (okay, maybe some are), but because, as he illustrates very well, when you take photos of many moving objects, they tend to come out blurry.

That is why, in this election, we have very different candidates running against each other: some who agree on social issues but are polar opposites on economic ones; others who are completely alike in their assessment of the situation but propose entirely opposite solutions; and still others whose views we don’t even really know. To make matters worse, one of the candidates isn’t even in the country.

But perhaps even more important than the presidential election is the parliamentary one. Over the past two years, it has become clear that by forming ad hoc majorities for a particular vote, it is possible to even override the Constitution and that, with enough votes, one can co-govern the country. The issues currently under discussion in Congress are not going to be resolved with the current composition of Congress, and if certain ongoing initiatives proceed, the balance of power in both chambers could shift significantly enough to determine whether or not certain bills pass. Thus, at least on our end, we will follow those results in great detail—focusing not only on the candidates’ political affiliations but also on what they say about specific issues that concern us: retirement, taxes, government spending, capital markets, etc.

Therefore, regardless of your preferences, it does make a difference. Staying informed, using the new tools and channels available to get to know the candidates (and even seeing if you “match” with any of them), and even the possibility of interacting with them on social media makes us more responsible for the process than ever before. No more blaming external factors for who gets elected, what laws they pass, or how they run the country. Because it does matter—let’s go vote.

Nathan Pincheira 

Chief Economist at Fynsa