In October of last year, the consulting firm Strategic Market Research estimated that the global market for autonomous and semi-autonomous vehicles would reach US$197,000 million by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 25.7% starting from an estimated US$25,000 million in 2021. 

That year, the transportation sector—with several cities allowing autonomous taxis to operate and some automakers offering semi-autonomous vehicles— was the main driver of this business. And the U.S. accounted for 45% of sales. For the coming years, however, Strategic Market Research estimates that the defense segment will see the highest growth. 

These optimistic projections, however, stand in stark contrast to the clear loss of interest among automakers and, more importantly, investors, in the development of autonomous vehicles. 

According to Bloomberg, at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas—the world’s largest trade show and a trendsetter for cutting-edge products—the presence of autonomous vehicles was much smaller than in 2021. This year, the star of this segment was an autonomous tractor from John Deere—not particularly glamorous, but very appealing to farmers. 

What is the reason for this cooling of enthusiasm for self-driving cars? Investors’ risk aversion and the lack of a clear timeline for when profitability will be achieved. Electric vehicles are stealing the show, including at CES in Las Vegas. Will the landscape change once we overcome the current global economic slowdown?