A new season of quarterly corporate earnings is approaching in the US, and spirits remain high. Consensus estimates point to earnings growth for S&P 500 companies in the first quarter of 2021 of 20% (see attached table), which would make this period the one with the highest earnings growth since the third quarter of 2018, when they grew by 26.1%. For the second quarter, given the low basis for comparison, an even greater increase in earnings for these companies is expected (+50%).

Revenue would remain solid with expected growth of 5% for Q1 2021 and 18% for Q2 2021.

For the full year, earnings growth of 23% and sales growth of 10% are expected, although we believe there is upside risk to the market consensus, given that the IMF's latest update of global GDP growth projections for 2021 of 6% would be consistent with earnings growth of 34% for the S&P 500.