Copper prices are at record highs, as demand remains strong and inventories at record lows.as demand remains strong and inventories at record lows. But but the good news is relative for copper producers.. For various reasons, some of the major copper producers have had to adjust downward their production projections for 2030. have had to adjust their production projections for 2022 downward.. BHP, Anglo American and Antofagasta Minerals and Codelco started the year on the wrong foot, reporting production falls in the first quarter of 2022 and projecting lower production than expected for the whole of 2022. Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, also reported lower production in the first quarter of 2022..

Other mining giants, such as Glencore and Rio Tinto, have also adjusted downward their production projections for the year. Apart from the effects of the pandemic, the main reasons are associated with the aging of the mines - with a declining amount of copper per tonne of material - and the -with a decreasing amount of copper per tonne of material climatic factors and, especially in Chile, water availability problems..

The long-term outlook, according to analysts, is not so favorable.. Difficulties in obtaining environmental permits and social opposition to the construction of mining projects are jeopardizing plans to increase production. Environmental authorities in Chile, for example, in April rejected Anglo American's Los Bronces Integrado project, a US$3.3 billion investment to extend the Los Bronces mine, located near Santiago.

The political environment does not help either. Global risk analysis firm Fitch Solutions cut its projections for Chilean copper production in the long term, citing the possibilities of regulatory changes for the sector stemming from the new Constitution and the new government's policies, as well as growing socio-environmental opposition. citing the possibilities of regulatory changes for the sector stemming from the new Constitution and the new government's policies, as well as growing socio-environmental opposition. Fitch estimates that Chile's copper production will continue to grow, but at a slower pace, reachingbut at a slower pace, reaching 7.2 million tons by 2031, significantly lower than the previous estimate of 8.9 million tons.

Average copper inventory in metal exchanges in April of each year (thousands of mt)

Source: Cochilco