Fynsa
We must not forget that, once the immediate imbalances have been resolved, the growth capacity of our economy is very low.
You may say I am a dreamer: economic policies work and eventually we will return to equilibrium. It's not free, though, like nothing else in life.
The market is beginning to doubt that central banks globally will remain aggressive in the fight against inflation as risks to financial stability increase.
August's surprise does not even give reason to hope for a softer deceleration: we preliminarily estimate a variation of Imacec in September between -2% and -1.5% YoY.
While the Central Bank is doing everything possible to lower inflation, the work of the public and private sectors must focus on productivity, the only way to generate wealth without boycotting the work of monetary policy.
Currency depreciation, global logistical difficulties and the consumption boom, among other factors, formed a toxic cocktail that has been more difficult to combat than previously thought.
The Central Bank decided to increase the rate to the maximum level of this cycle, which eventually generated dissent among the board members.
The outcome of the plebiscite should have a positive impact on the markets, under the assumption of lower uncertainty and risk premiums in the future due to the expectation of a more moderate new constitution.
If at one time we were struck by how resilient some sectors of the economy were, we are now surprised by how quickly they have deteriorated.
In the new macro framework, we see little change to the expected growth for 2022, but we do not rule out a further downward adjustment to 2023.
