Fynsa
In the new macro framework, we see little change to the expected growth for 2022, but we do not rule out a further downward adjustment to 2023.
The Chilean economy is in such a state of imbalance that it cannot respond in the way it normally would in this type of situation.
The year-on-year variation would reach 12.7%, unfortunately for those who expect inflation to ease a little in the coming months.
Although the "less bad" Imacec data would avoid technical recession, this does not mean that there is reason for optimism.
The Central Bank's Board chose not to surprise market participants, which is quite revealing regarding the future cycle of rate hikes
The work that Central Banks are doing now has little to do with controlling current inflation.
For the time being, we continue to expect an increase in the TPM to reach a maximum level of 9.5%.
We must put ourselves in the pants and skirts of the Central Bank Advisors and anticipate what is to come for the rate over the next few months.
The big question is: Should the Central Bank backtrack on the guidance provided in the IPoM and continue with aggressive increases in the TPM?
