Although historically the MEPCO was not the ideal system, we learned to live with it given its effectiveness and the rationale behind it. If we do not allow it to operate, it is as if it did not exist at all, and decisions on fuel prices would be made entirely at the discretion of officials.
Rising fuel prices will lead to higher inflation in the short term, but year-end forecasts will depend largely on how the conflict in the Middle East unfolds.
Rather than a fund or a subsidy, the MEPCO is a mechanism that spreads the impact of volatility in international fuel prices over time. Understanding how it works allows us to assess both its benefits and its limitations.
We simulated what would happen to fuel prices and the CPI if MEPCO were to disappear completely overnight. Readers will likely view this scenario as unlikely, but it is useful to assess in advance the magnitude of the impact such a measure would have.
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There are several factors: the price of oil, freight rates, the value of the dollar, and Mepco