Fynsa
Having seen levels of 780 in the first half of the year and with the Central Bank lowering rates ahead of the rest of the economies, we should see the exchange rate converge to the lower end of this year's range.
The expected drop in the price of the dollar to the vicinity of 800 should not occur until next year.
The current scenario considers the worst conditions for the Chilean peso, with a local rate that should reach 8% by the end of the year.
It seems fair to ask whether the dollar's uptrend will continue or whether these are levels to exit long positions or perhaps bet on declines.
As long as the U.S. economy continues to prove more resilient, and if monetary policy cannot quickly become more accommodative, it is difficult for the dollar to sell off substantially.
We continue to recommend overweighting less rate-sensitive assets such as cash, value sectors, international equities and real assets.
Higher interest rates put pressure on valuations during 2022, but the focus will now shift from valuations to corporate earnings in an increasingly challenging macro environment.
