Fynsa
Having seen levels of 780 in the first half of the year and with the Central Bank lowering rates ahead of the rest of the economies, we should see the exchange rate converge to the lower end of this year's range.
The expected drop in the price of the dollar to the vicinity of 800 should not occur until next year.
The current outlook points to the worst-case scenario for the Chilean peso, with the local interest rate expected to reach 8% by the end of the year.
It seems fair to ask whether the dollar's upward trend will continue, or whether these are levels at which to close out long positions or perhaps bet on a decline.
As long as the U.S. economy continues to prove more resilient, and if monetary policy cannot quickly become more accommodative, it is difficult for the dollar to sell off substantially.
More conservative on international issues, more risk-taking on local issues.
We continue to recommend increasing the weighting of assets that are less sensitive to interest rates, such as cash, value stocks, international stocks, and real assets.
Higher interest rates put pressure on valuations during 2022, but the focus will now shift from valuations to corporate earnings in an increasingly challenging macro environment.
