Fynsa
It will be vital to monitor upcoming data to assess the need to accelerate the process of cutting the MPR.
The December CPI surprised the market with a 0.5% m/m drop; in this scenario we believe there is room for 100bp cuts or even a 125bp run.
Viewing the Central Bank’s minor rate cuts as a “tactical pause,” we believe these would be only temporary, pending a less turbulent environment.
We can expect that, as far as possible, the next cuts in the TPM will remain in the more conservative range of the corridor presented in the last IPoM.
While the macro framework was maintained, the depreciation of the peso has bothered the Central Bank, which has not wanted to add "more gasoline" to the reduction of the interest rate differential.
It seems fair to ask whether the dollar's upward trend will continue, or whether these are levels at which to close out long positions or perhaps bet on a decline.
We maintain our expectation that any changes to the TPM will likely not occur until September.
As usual, I wanted to summarize our main projections for 2023, at the risk of being overcharged in twelve months' time.
