Fynsa
It will be vital to monitor the upcoming data to assess the need to accelerate the process of cutting the TPM.
The December CPI surprised the market with a 0.5% m/m drop; in this scenario we believe there is room for 100bp cuts or even a 125bp run.
Evaluating the Central Bank's smaller cuts as a "tactical pause", we believe that these would only be transitory, awaiting a less convulsive context.
We can expect that, as far as possible, the next cuts in the TPM will remain in the more conservative range of the corridor presented in the last IPoM.
While the macro framework was maintained, the depreciation of the peso has bothered the Central Bank, which has not wanted to add "more gasoline" to the reduction of the interest rate differential.
It seems fair to ask whether the dollar's uptrend will continue or whether these are levels to exit long positions or perhaps bet on declines.
We maintain our expectation that possible movements in the TPM will have to wait until September.
As usual, I wanted to summarize our main projections for 2023, at the risk of being overcharged in twelve months' time.
