Fynsa
As usual, I wanted to summarize our main projections for 2023, at the risk of being overcharged in twelve months' time.
The central bank will consider factors other than inflation for its monetary policy, such as the current account deficit, financial conditions and international trade.
The risk of reducing the MPR and then having to reverse it due to a misreading of the information is much higher than leaving it at 11.25% for longer than appropriate.
It is important to mention that we do not believe that inflation is over and that the risks of persistence and slower normalization are still present.
The important question that arises with respect to the Central Bank's policy is how long monetary tightening will be on hold.
The outcome of the plebiscite should have a positive impact on the markets, under the assumption of lower uncertainty and risk premiums in the future due to the expectation of a more moderate new constitution.
The Chilean economy is in such a state of disarrangement that it cannot act as it is accustomed to in this type of situation.
For the fourth consecutive time, the Central Bank modified the bias of the statement, repeating the situation of March and May: a bias that indicated an early end to the hiking cycle, and then eliminated it and raised the rate more than expected.
The year-on-year variation would reach 12.7%, unfortunately for those who expect inflation to ease a little in the coming months.
