It's no secret that I'm a die-hard fan of the University of Chile. And as such, I have experienced both the sweet and sour of identifying so strongly with a team, especially in a week like this, when the 191st edition of the superclásico is being played. Since May 2013, with a goal scored almost in stoppage time by Charles Aránguiz, we haven't beaten our classic rival, and worse still, we haven't done so at their stadium since 2001. It's as if, regardless of the club's level of soccer, this fateful date always comes around when we get knocked back down to earth, we stop hoping that "this time it will happen" and we return to this reality that has lasted too long.

I believe that this figure of the ground wire describes very well what happened after the Central Bank published the January Imacec, which increased by 9.0% compared to the same period last year. A variation that, at any other time, would have been a cause for celebration but, on this occasion, has become a cause for concern. Regardless of whether the data fell short of market expectations—which is somewhat subjective—it revealed other signs of a slowdown that could be faster than expected. 

Firstly, statistically speaking, it was not unreasonable to expect a double-digit variation, for reasons of level, base of comparison, etc. This did not happen because, in seasonally adjusted terms, the series fell 1.0% compared to the previous month, the largest decrease since March of last year. "It wasn't that long ago," you might say, but let's not forget that this result came after the the reestablishment of all mobility restriction measures in much of the country, which has not happened this time around. In fact, I have been unable to find any exogenous reasons that could explain this decline, which leaves us only with reasons directly associated with the economic cycle. 

Secondly, when we break down the figures, we find that the sector that slowed down the most was Trade, despite the fact that it continues to show significant year-on-year variations . Moreover, the rate of increase at which it had been growing in previous months. In contrast, Services was the only sector that continued to increase its margin, also understanding that it was one of the last to join the recovery cycle last year. Therefore, as we anticipated, the absence of additional liquidity measures liquidity and fiscal transfers to households in 2022 will have an impact sooner rather than later, although we will have to wait for more figures to be able to conclude this with greater certainty. 

Finally, the geopolitical events that we are witnessing today will surely have an impact in the coming months, which will add to the internal slowdown process that has already begun. This confirms our expectation of growth below 2.0% for this year, which is below most estimates. After a buoyant 2021, the grounding of 2022 will bring us back to the reality of the country we are building and show us that all bills must eventually be paid. Although, as in soccer, we think that this time it will be different.

Nathan Pincheira 

Chief Economist at Fynsa