It's no secret that I'm a rabid fan of the Universidad de Chile. And as such, I have known the sweet and sour it can be to identify so strongly with a team, especially in a week like this, when the 191st version of the superclásico is being played. Since May 2013, with a goal almost in stoppage time by Charles Aránguiz, we haven't beaten our classic rival and, even worse, since 2001 we haven't done it in their stadium. It is as if, regardless of the footballing level of the club, there always comes this fateful date in which we throw a cable to earthWe stop dreaming that "now we can" and we return to this reality that has lasted too long.

I believe that this figure of the ground wire describes very well what happened after the Central Bank's Central Bank published the Imacec for Januarywhich increased 9.0% compared to the same period last year.. A variation that, at any other moment in time, would have been a reason to rejoice but that, in this past year, became a cause for concern.. Regardless of whether the figure was below market expectations -which has a certain amount of subjectivity-, it evidenced other signs of a deceleration process that could go on a deceleration process that could go faster than expected..

First of all, statistically speakingstatistically speaking, it was not demanding to expect a variation over two digits, for reasons of level, basis for comparison, etc.for reasons of level, basis for comparison, etc. This did not happen, because, in seasonally adjusted terms, the series fell 1.0% compared to the previous month, the largest decline since March of last year.. "It wasn't that long ago," you will say, but let's not forget that this result occurred after the reinstatement of all mobility restriction measures in much of the country, which was in a large part of the country, something that has not happened this past year. In fact, I have not been able to find exogenous reasons that could explain this drop, which leaves us only with reasons directly associated with the economic cycle.

Secondly, when we disaggregate the figure, we find that the sector that slowed the most wasWhen we disaggregated the figure, we found that the sector that slowed the most was Commercealthough it continues to show year-on-year year-on-year variations significant year-on-year variations. Moreover, increased at a faster rate than the rate at which it had been doing so in previous months. In contrast, Services was the only sector that continued to increase at the margin, also because it was one of the last to join the recovery cycle. recovery cycle last year. Therefore, as we mentioned earlier, the absence of additional liquidity liquidity and fiscal transfers to households in 2022 would be having an impact sooner rather than lateralthough we will have to wait for more figures to be able to conclude this with more conviction.

Finally, the geopolitical events events that we are witnessing today will surely have an impact in the coming months, which will add to the internal internal slowdown process that has already that has already begun. This ratifies our growth expectation of below 2.0% for this year, which for the current year, which is below most estimates. After a buoyant 2021, the ground wire of 2022 will bring us back to the reality of the country we are building and show us that all bills eventually have to be paid. all bills eventually have to be paid. Although, as in soccer, let's think that this time it will be different.

Nathan Pincheira 

Chief Economist of Fynsa