During the conversation, we reviewed the macroeconomic scenario, equity momentum, and current fixed income conditions, along with projections for the Fynsa Total Return, Fynsa Chile Debt, and Fynsa Tactical Debt funds.
Below, we share some of the main topics addressed:
2025 was an exceptional year for Chilean assets in fixed income, equities, and the peso. The starting point was the approval of the pension reform, which strengthens domestic savings and the capital market while attracting greater investment flows. This was followed by a more balanced macroeconomic environment, with growth recovering to 2.5% and greater convergence of inflation, which closed the year at around 3.5%, but with expectations already well anchored at the central bank's target of 3.0%.
This allowed the central bank to continue adjusting monetary policy from 5.0% to 4.5%, easing pressure on discount rates and leading to an expansion of multiples in equities and capital gains in fixed income.
Finally, the local market has been capturing the change in the political cycle and the pro-market policies that José Antonio Kast's future government would implement.
The external environment has also been supportive despite trade/tariff risks, with a more accommodative monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve (three 25 bp cuts), a weaker dollar (10% depreciation so far this year), and historic copper prices already trading close to US$6 per pound, amid long-term structural demand linked to electrification, energy transition, and storage, while supply-side constraints remain relevant. This, combined with low energy prices, has translated into a substantial improvement in terms of trade.
This scenario favors more sustained prices and acts as an additional catalyst for economies and markets with high exposure to natural resources, such as Chile, supporting both macro growth and corporate earnings prospects.
Of course, the question that follows is: How much of these favorable trends, both locally and internationally, can we project toward 2026?
On the local front, we maintain a positive outlook for Chile, which should benefit from improved macroeconomic conditions and record terms of trade, which could boost economic growth amid renewed optimism and continue to lead the region and EM in terms of returns.
This process will be further driven by political shifts toward pro-market governments, especially in Chile. This context favors higher corporate earnings growth and stronger economic momentum, factors that are increasingly crucial to sustaining performance in this second stage of the rebound, especially as valuation margins have narrowed in Chile.
To continue taking advantage of the positive momentum in local equities, our Fynsa Total Return fund, which achieved a return of 63.47% in 2025, outperforming the IPSA by more than 7%, is positioned in those sectors that we believe will lead this second stage of recovery in local stocks.
In fixed income, short-term rates in UF are at attractive levels (around UF +3.0%) and inflation compensation for instruments with maturities of up to 3 years is considerably below target, which could suggest an opportunity.
If you are interested in supplementing this analysis and reviewing the main messages from our online event, we invite you to watch the following SmartClip: a 7-minute summary of the key points from this conversation and some relevant definitions for the quarter.