January 23, 2026 - 4 min

How to position your portfolio in Chile in 2026

During Monday's meeting, "Market Keys 1Q 2026 | RFL and RVL: How to position your portfolio in Chile," we analyzed the main opportunities in the local market for the first quarter of the year.

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During the conversation, we reviewed the macroeconomic scenario, equity momentum, and current fixed income conditions, along with projections for the Fynsa Total Return, Fynsa Chile Debt, and Fynsa Tactical Debt funds.

Below, we share some of the main topics addressed:

2025 was an exceptional year for Chilean assets in fixed income, equities, and the peso. The starting point was the approval of the pension reform, which strengthens domestic savings and the capital market while attracting greater investment flows. This was followed by a more balanced macroeconomic environment, with growth recovering to 2.5% and greater convergence of inflation, which closed the year at around 3.5%, but with expectations already well anchored at the central bank's target of 3.0%.

This allowed the central bank to continue adjusting monetary policy from 5.0% to 4.5%, easing pressure on discount rates and leading to an expansion of multiples in equities and capital gains in fixed income.

Finally, the local market has been capturing the change in the political cycle and the pro-market policies that José Antonio Kast's future government would implement.

The external environment has also been supportive despite trade/tariff risks, with a more accommodative monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve (three 25 bp cuts), a weaker dollar (10% depreciation so far this year), and historic copper prices already trading close to US$6 per pound, amid long-term structural demand linked to electrification, energy transition, and storage, while supply-side constraints remain relevant. This, combined with low energy prices, has translated into a substantial improvement in terms of trade.

This scenario favors more sustained prices and acts as an additional catalyst for economies and markets with high exposure to natural resources, such as Chile, supporting both macro growth and corporate earnings prospects.

Of course, the question that follows is: How much of these favorable trends, both locally and internationally, can we project toward 2026?

  • On the international front, we expect global economic growth to remain resilient and accelerate over the coming year, given that financial conditions are more accommodative.
  • This should continue to feed back into greater corporate visibility with earnings that continue to be revised upward, with more potential in emerging markets.
  • In this regard, the superior performance of ex-US markets in 2025 would extend into 2026, especially in emerging markets, also leveraged by a weaker dollar and more attractive relative valuations.
  • We also find commodities attractive for 2026. Supply constraints and higher demand support higher metal prices. In this regard, a structural deficit of around 8 million tons is forecast for copper by 2035.How can a growing deficit in the copper market be solved? With high prices. We forecast long-term prices closer to US$5.5/lb.

On the local front, we maintain a positive outlook for Chile, which should benefit from improved macroeconomic conditions and record terms of trade, which could boost economic growth amid renewed optimism and continue to lead the region and EM in terms of returns.

This process will be further driven by political shifts toward pro-market governments, especially in Chile. This context favors higher corporate earnings growth and stronger economic momentum, factors that are increasingly crucial to sustaining performance in this second stage of the rebound, especially as valuation margins have narrowed in Chile.

To continue taking advantage of the positive momentum in local equities, our Fynsa Total Return fund, which achieved a return of 63.47% in 2025, outperforming the IPSA by more than 7%, is positioned in those sectors that we believe will lead this second stage of recovery in local stocks.

  • In the commodities sector, we see the lithium sector as attractive given the market deficit between now and 2030, due to higher estimated demand for energy storage and EVs, and price increases in a context of lower inventory levels.
  • The Transportation Sector, where LTM will continue to leverage its capital structure and discipline to monetize its routes, especially in Brazil and internationally, focusing on the premium segment with solid cash generation and capital returns.
  • And the banking sector, where banks could continue to enjoy favorable conditions, this time with a focus on reviving commercial and consumer lending, improving efficiency ratios, and funding costs.

In fixed income, short-term rates in UF are at attractive levels (around UF +3.0%) and inflation compensation for instruments with maturities of up to 3 years is considerably below target, which could suggest an opportunity.

  • A conservative strategy, with exposure in UF and very high credit quality, offers a potentially higher yield than financial intermediation instruments (time deposits and money market funds).
  • In this regard, our Fynsa Deuda Chile Fund is well positioned for these purposes and currently has a stock market presence, which constitutes a tax advantage over instruments such as time deposits and money market mutual funds.

 

If you are interested in supplementing this analysis and reviewing the main messages from our online event, we invite you to watch the following SmartClip: a 7-minute summary of the key points from this conversation and some relevant definitions for the quarter.

 

 

DISCLAIMER.

Humberto Mora

Investment, Finance, and Business Manager; Stockbroker