Tomorrow, Sunday, May 7, elections for the Constitutional Council will be held. To understand what we can expect from this event—and to inform our analysis once the results are known—FYNSA held a webinar with election expert Pepe Auth, moderated by attorney Marcelo Forni, a partner and director at the consulting firm Ángulo. Here are some of the key takeaways from Auth’s analysis:

• With the inclusion of “guidelines” and the Committee of Experts to structure the constitutional debate, we are facing a process designed to foster consensus. “It will be a consensus-based Constitution, unless a very large majority is elected,” Auth said.
• "Chile Seguro will be the leading party, but the biggest news will be the growth of the Republicans," he says. "The result will depend on how many people vote. In an election with mandatory voting, voters cast their ballots based on the pressing issues of the moment. I estimate we’ll have 9.5 million valid votes, but if 10.5 million valid votes are cast, the Republicans and the People’s Party will come out ahead,” he says.
• Why will people go out to vote? It’s true that there is a sense of fatigue and lower expectations than during the previous constitutional debate, but the willingness to vote has increased in recent weeks and now stands at 85%. “People want this process to end once and for all,” he says.
• If the Republicans and the People's Party secure two-fifths of the seats on the Constitutional Council, they could block any agreement, but the People's Party is unpredictable.
• Following the results of the September referendum, uncertainty has greatly diminished. But we must not forget that we are dealing with an electorate that “rejects” the political system, so we must handle the constitutional debate with care. “We need a Constitution that is recognized and respected, one that commands broad respect,” says Auth.

You can watch the full webinar here.