FYNSA Webinar
May 5, 2023 - 2 min

Constitutional Council: Impact on the Constituent Process

After the result of the September plebiscite, uncertainty has been greatly reduced, but we must not forget that we are facing an electorate that is "rejectionist" of the political system, said former congressman and electoral analyst Pepe Auth.

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Tomorrow, Sunday, May 7, the elections for the Constitutional Council will be held. In order to understand what we can expect from this event -and to feed the analysis once the results are in -FYNSA conducted a webinar with electoral expert Pepe Auth and moderated by lawyer Marcelo Forni, partner and director of the consulting firm Ángulo. These are some of the main messages of Auth's analysis:

  • With the incorporation of "edges" and the Committee of Experts to organize the constitutional discussion, we are facing a process that is made to encourage consensus. "It will be a consensus Constitution, unless a very large majority is elected," Auth pointed out.
  • Chile Seguro will be the first list, but the biggest news will be the growth of Republicans, he points out. "The outcome will depend on how many vote. In a compulsory voting election, voters vote for the urgencies of the moment. I estimate that we will have 9.5 million valid votes, but if there are 10.5 million valid votes cast, Republicans and the People's Party will come out ahead," he affirms.
  • Why will people go to vote? It is true that there is tiredness and lower expectations than in the previous constitutional discussion, but the willingness to vote has increased in the last weeks and reaches 85%. "People want this process to end once and for all," he says.
  • If the Republicans and the People's Party reach two-fifths of the Constitutional Councilors they could block any deal, but the People's Party is unpredictable.
  • After the result of the September plebiscite, uncertainty has been greatly reduced. But we must not forget that we are facing an electorate that is "rejectionist" of the political system, so it is necessary to take care of the constitutional discussion. "We need a recognized and respected Constitution, which achieves transversal respect," says Auth.

You can watch the complete webinar here.