DHL and New York University's Stern School of Business released the DHL Trade Atlas 2025. DHL Trade Atlas 2025which provides a comprehensive analysis of the most important trends in global trade. The report comes at a critical time for the global economy. With the re-election of Donald Trump, new tariff threats and a complex geopolitical landscape, many are asking: where is international trade headed?

The answer, according to the report, is clear: global trade is not only still standing, it is moving forward with more force..

Growth with uncertainty

• World trade in goods is projected to grow at an annual rate of 3.1% between 2024 and 2029. 3.1% between 2024 and 2029. This represents an improvement from 2.0% in the previous five years.

• However, trade policy uncertainty, especially from the U.S., could slow this pace.

Even if all of Trump's proposed tariff increases were implemented, trade would continue to grow, albeit more slowly.trade would continue to grow, albeit more slowly.

Asia and Africa: the engines of the future

Four countries will lead in both speed and volume of trade growth:

• India (third largest contributor to global growth)

• Vietnam

• Indonesia

• Philippines

In regional terms, the highest growth is expected in:

• Central and South Asia

• Sub-Saharan Africa

• Southeast Asia (ASEAN)

Europe, although growing at a slower pace, will generate 30% of total global trade growth.

Less globalization? Quite the opposite

The report debunks the myth of de-globalization:

• In 2024, global trade will reach a record average distance of 5,000 km.

• Trade within regions fell to an all-time low of 51 historic low of 51%..

• Supply chains continue to be global and increasingly global and increasingly extensive.

China is not leaving: it is just changing its route

Although the U.S. imports less directly from China, "made in China" content is still present:

• Many goods imported from other countries contain Chinese inputs.

• The real dependence of the U.S. on China has not decreased significantly. has not diminished significantly..

Untapped potential

Only 21% of the total value of goods and services produced globally crosses borders. This suggests ample ample room for further growth..

In addition, trade continues to be a driver of:

• Productivity

• Innovation

• Competitiveness

• Diversification of consumption

Can Trump uncouple the world?

No, according to the report. Although the U.S. can generate disruptions:

• Their weight in global trade is not enough to reverse the trend.

• The majority of countries countries are still committed to trade openness..

• It is likely that many aggressive advertisements are likely to be toned down in practice to avoid internal inflation.

Why does this matter?

For businesses, governments and investors, the DHL Trade Atlas 2025 provides a clear roadmap:

• Global trade is changing, not disappearing.

• Opportunities lie in emerging regions and countries.

• Adapting to new routes and dynamics will be key to growth.

Review the interactive data and download the full report at: dhl.com/tradeatlas

Fynsa