The presidential elections in Argentina have come and gone, and there were some surprises. The candidates were Patricia Bullrich (Juntos por el Cambio), a conservative and right-wing candidate, though part of a coalition that also included center-left members; Javier Milei (La Libertad Avanza), an economist—a proponent of free-market ideas—who had turned to politics; and Sergio Massa (Unión por la Patria) a chameleon-like, highly skilled politician who has managed to navigate various political spheres. He is currently the Minister of Economy of a battered Argentina. 

The projections were split: there was talk of one-third for each candidate, though with a slight edge for Javier Milei. In the final stretch of the campaign, there was fierce competition against Bullrich, as both candidates sought to capture votes from the same right-wing and center-right electorate. Ultimately, last Sunday’s results turned out somewhat differently than expected. Massa, who had been predicted to finish third, came in first with nearly 37% (9.6 million), while Milei received 30% (7.9 million) and Bullrich 24% (6.2 million). 

The first consequence has to do with Juntos por el Cambio. The coalition, which for many years was the main opposition to the ruling party, now finds itself fractured after finishing third, and with part of its electorate beginning to support Massa and Milei. The second major consequence has to do with how the political landscape is now shaped, with Massa emerging as the clear leader of Peronism and Milei as the leader of the opposition. Third, it is likely that—for the first time, and following the split within Juntos por el Cambio—a clear ideological divide will emerge between free-market ideas—represented by La Libertad Avanza and part of Juntos por el Cambio—and socialism, represented by Peronism, Radicalism, and the Left. 

Argentina is fundamentally Peronist, and the entire oversight and propaganda apparatus will be on the side of the ruling party. Milei would have to capture most of Bullrich’s votes to stand a chance. Today, Bullrich’s political leader is Mauricio Macri, who has a good relationship with Javier Milei, and bridges are reportedly being built in that regard. In the event that Massa wins the runoff, continuity is expected in policies protecting domestic industry, aiming for developmentalism with a competitive exchange rate, according to his official platform. In the case of Milei, a shift would occur based primarily on two points:a reduction in public spending and dollarization (free competition among currencies). We’ll find out on November 19, the day of the runoff election, when whoever wins the majority of the votes will take the presidential office.

Pablo Gonella

Cash Desk Operator