Presidential elections in Argentina are over and there were surprises. The candidates were Patricia Bullrich (Juntos por el Cambio), conservative and right-wing, but within a coalition where there were also people from the center-left; Javier Milei (La Libertad Avanza), an economist -a disseminator of free market ideas- turned into a politician; and Sergio Massa (Unión por la Patria) a chameleon politician, very skillful and who knew how to be in several spaces. He is currently the Minister of Economy of the battered Argentina.

The projections were divided: there was talk of a third for each one, although with some advantage for Javier Milei. In the last stretch of the campaign there was a fierce competition against Bullrich, trying to capture votes in the same right and center-right electorate. Finally, last Sunday's results were somewhat different from what was expected. Massa, who was expected to come in third place, came out first and won almost 37% (9.6MM), while Milei obtained 30% (7.9MM), and Bullrich 24% (6.2MM).

The first consequence has to do with Juntos por el Cambio. The coalition that was for many years the main opposition to the ruling party, is now in disarray after coming in third place, and with part of its electorate starting to support Massa and Milei. The second important consequence has to do with how the political map is configured, where Massa is the clear leader of Peronism and Milei of the opposition.. Thirdly, it is likely that for the first time, and from the segregation of Juntos por el Cambio, a clear ideological division between free market ideas -represented by La Libertad Avanza and part of Juntos por el Cambio- and Socialism, represented by Peronism, Radicalism and the Left, will be exposed.

Argentina is fundamentally Peronist, and the whole apparatus of control and propaganda will be on the side of the ruling party. Milei would have to capture the majority of Bullrich's votes to have a chance. Today, Bullrich's political boss is Mauricio Macri, who has a good relationship with Javier Milei, and bridges are being built in that sense. In the event that Massa wins the ballot, continuity is expected in the policies with protection of the national industry, aiming at a developmentalism with a competitive exchange rate, according to his official program.according to his official program. In Milei's case, a change would occur mainly based on two points: lhe reduction of public spending and dollarization (free competition of currencies). We will know this on November 19, the day of the ballot, where whoever gets the majority of votes will win the presidential baton.

Pablo Gonella

Money Desk Operator