The International Grain Council revised its global grain production forecast for this season (2020/2021) downward due to the drought affecting Brazil, which will have a particularly significant impact on corn production. The IGC’s projection puts production at 2,220 million metric tons for the season. Given rising consumption and increased grain imports by China—largely to feed its pig farms, which are recovering from an epidemic—the IGC forecasts a further decline in global grain inventories, which are expected to stand at 599 metric tons. This is the fifth consecutive season of declining inventories. The trend in the grain market is reflected in the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) price index. The overall index shows a 39.7% increase in May 2021 compared to the same month in 2020, while the cereal index rose 36.6% over the same period.
