“Elections: Hell or Purgatory for Peru (2021–2026)?”. That is the title political scientist and sociologist Patricio Navia gave to the webinar organized by FYNSA to analyze the controversial Peruvian elections on June 6, which are taking place amid a severe economic and health crisis.

Until recently, Peru was the region’s rising star, with solid growth and a reduction in inequality. But the country has not been as successful in reducing poverty, with high levels of informal employment and a highly vulnerable middle class that has been hit hard by the pandemic. Its recent history of stability and growth is a significant factor to consider at the polls, as these achievements are taken for granted. The crises of two decades ago are not fresh in the memory of a population that is largely young. 

Since the return to democracy in 2001, Peru has been in a state of constant political crisis, with a democratic system lacking political parties and plagued by numerous corruption scandals. While until recently democracy was seen as the path to well-being, the country’s current situation has likely changed that view of democracy.

On April 11, the first round of voting took place among 19 candidates, with two out of every three Peruvians voting for candidates other than Castillo and Fujimori. For many, this runoff election is a choice between “the lesser of two evils.” 

Castillo is a rural teacher and union leader who has not presented a clear governing platform but who represents both the old revolutionary left and the current anger, discontent, and disaffection among the population. He does not lead a movement, and his governing team is ill-prepared. 

Fujimori, who has a long political career, holds an almost extreme pro-market and pro-business stance. He has prepared himself to govern, knows Peru well, and has a vision for the country; he also has the skills to navigate the current situation and build technical teams to form a government. However, he poses risks of corruption and authoritarianism. In fact, he was held in pretrial detention in connection with corruption cases. 

Fujimori is widely disliked, but Castillo is little known, and the more people get to know him, the more they dislike him. If Castillo wins and keeps his promises, the country could shift far to the left, or he could campaign on the left but govern from the right—in which case it could lead to social unrest—but in any event, his administration could be highly transformative. If Fujimori wins, although expectations are low, he would have greater room to maneuver.

For Navia, Castillo could be hell, bringing more crisis and polarization. Fujimori could be purgatory—with many risks but more upside. For the country, in the short term, purgatory seems like the better option, but it is not the long-term solution. The polls show Castillo in the lead, although the gap has been narrowing. Navia believes that Fujimori could pull off a surprise victory this weekend, thanks to higher turnout among older Peruvians who did not vote in the first round and to the overseas vote (1 million eligible voters). The results, in any case, will depend on voter turnout and the rural vote, which has been underestimated in the polls.