Opinion
May 19, 2023 - 2 min

There is a limit

Currently, markets are showing signs of risk in the face of the possibility of a new debt ceiling crisis.

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The U.S. debt ceiling, first implemented in 1917, is a fiscal tool that has generated growing concern in recent decades. This ceiling on federal government borrowing has been the subject of intense political negotiations, with serious implications for financial markets.

Throughout history, Congress has had to raise this limit repeatedly to allow the government to continue to fund its operations.

These constant adjustments have caused uncertainty in the financial markets. Episodes in 2011 and 2013, where Congress was slow to reach agreements to raise the debt ceiling, resulted in the downgrading of the U.S. credit rating and a partial shutdown of the federal government. Currently, markets are showing signs of risk in the face of the possibility of a new debt ceiling crisis.

A technical default, in which the government is unable to meet its financial obligations, would have serious consequences for the U.S. and global economy. In addition to damaging confidence in the U.S. economy, it could result in higher interest rates and generate instability in financial markets.

Despite the serious consequences, partisan bickering often delays agreement on raising the debt ceiling. Nonetheless, the risk-conscious Congress is expected to reach an agreement to avoid default, Congress, aware of the risk, is expected to reach an agreement to avoid default.. At present, risks associated with this limit are being reflected in certain financial sectors, which could lead to changes in economic growth expectations and financial asset returns.

In summary, while the risk of the risk of a debt default is low, it is essential to assess possible changes in economic growth expectations and financial asset yields.The future of the debt ceiling and its impact on key market assets will depend to a large extent on how this situation is resolved. The future of the debt ceiling and its impact on key market assets will depend largely on how this situation is resolved. It is expected that, through a political agreement, the deadline will be extended and discretionary spending restrictions will be put in place, although the magnitude of these restrictions is still subject to debate.

Francisco Muñoz

Partner - Commercial Director