As this Newsletter went to press, Russia's invasion of Ukraine was still ongoing and an open-ended situation, although given the disproportionate military forces in dispute and the risks of escalation if NATO responds militarily, all indications are that Russia would get its way in its aim to control Ukrainian territory, possibly through a puppet government. 

The adventure, however, is not free for Russia. The sanctions announced by Europe, the US and other developed countries will have an impact not only on the Russian economy, but also on global markets. 

Today, February 25, the markets returned to calm, with oil moving away from the US$100 a barrel barrier it reached after the invasion, and the Dow Jones and S&P indices recovering. Key to this has been the decision not to remove Russia from the SWIFT international payment exchange system, which would have prevented European oil and gas purchases from Russia, and the US State Department 's announcement not to sanction Russian energy exports so as not to harm US consumers.

Russia has asked to start diplomatic negotiations with Ukraine, but there are no indications that this will happen. Against this backdrop, analysts expect market volatility to continue as the war drama continues to unfold.