At the time of going to press, Russia's invasion of Ukraine was still ongoing and the situation remained uncertain. However, given the disproportionate military forces involved and the risks of escalation if NATO responds militarily, everything seems to indicate that Russia will achieve its goal of controlling Ukrainian territory, possibly through a puppet government. 

The adventure, however, does not come free of charge for Russia. The sanctions announced by Europe, the US, and other developed countries will have an impact not only on the Russian economy but also on global markets. 

Today , February 25 , markets returned to calm, with oil falling below the US$100 per barrel mark it reached after the invasion, and the Dow Jones and S&P indices recovering. Key to this has been the decision not to remove Russia from the SWIFT international payment exchange system, which would have prevented Europe from purchasing gas and oil from Russia, and the announcement by the US State Department that it would not sanction Russian energy exports so as not to harm US consumers.

Russia has called for diplomatic negotiations with Ukraine, but there are no indications that this will happen. In this context, analysts expect market volatility to continue as the military drama unfolds.