According to GFK's report at the end of the second quarter of 2025, the new housing market in Greater Santiago showed signs of reactivation in terms of new projects entering the market. Between April and June, 32 new projects were incorporated (11 housing projects and 21 apartment projects), marking the highest level since the first quarter of 2024, when 39 entries were registered. However, this figure is still below the inflow volumes observed prior to the pandemic.

In terms of supply, we see that the stock as of June 31 is 39,273 units (or 197.6 million UF), 2.1% lower than in the previous quarter, and 10.8% lower than in the same period of the previous year. In detail, we observe that the number of apartments in stock is 34,946 units, which are mostly concentrated in the districts of Santiago, Ñuñoa and La Florida. Between these three districts, 53% of the total supply of apartments is concentrated. In the housing market, the available stock is 4,237 units, mostly concentrated in the municipalities of Colina, Puente Alto and San Bernardo, which together account for 48% of the total housing stock. By delivery period, both for houses and apartments, the longest delivery period is for immediate delivery, representing a total of 26.8% of the total number of apartments and 29.4% of the total number of houses available.

On the sales side, 4,363 units (or 20.9 million UF) were sold during 2Q 2025, 4.8% more than in the previous quarter, and 4.6% less than in the same period of 2024. Breaking down the figures, 3,894 apartments and 469 houses were sold in 2Q 2025. In the case of apartments, the districts with the highest volume sold were Santiago, La Florida and Ñuñoa, with 52.1% of the total number of apartments sold, while in the housing market, the districts of Colina, Buin and Puente Alto accounted for 51.8% of the total. By delivery term, immediate delivery accounted for the highest percentage of quarterly sales in both apartments and houses, with 45.5% and 44.3% of total sales, respectively.

The average sales speed per project was 1.3 units per month (1.7 sales per month in the apartment market and 0.8 in the home market), so the months to sell out are 27 months considering the total market (27 months for the apartment market and 28 in the home market).

In summary, the balance of the first half of 2025 shows a new housing market in Greater Santiago that, although still showing signs of deceleration, is beginning to show signs of recovery. The annual contraction in sales and stock shows a moderate adjustment, but the rebound in the quarterly figures - especially in the speed of sales and the entry of new projects - gives certain signs of a change in trend.

Looking ahead to the second half of the year, everything indicates that the main catalyst will be the recent implementation of the Dividend Subsidy Law, which is already beginning to have an impact on the market with more than 500 applications approved and more than 2,000 in process, according to data from the Association of Banks and Financial Institutions (ABIF). This instrument, which subsidizes up to 60 basis points in the rate of mortgage loans for new homes of up to UF 4,000, has the potential to stimulate demand, reducing barriers to access to mortgage financing and accelerating delayed purchase decisions.

In this context, although the recovery is still incipient, the second quarter data consolidate the expectation of a more active second half of the year, driven by better conditions for access to financing, greater dynamism in project development and a gradual recovery in the confidence of both buyers and developers.

Sebastian Mahave
Portfolio Manager Real Estate Fynsa AGF