The year that just ended set a record in terms of growth, at least in the usual way we measure it, which would have reached 12%. This, after the Central Bank published the Imacec corresponding to December 2021, which increased 10.1% YoY, becoming the ninth consecutive month with double-digit growth. With this figure, activity would have increased 13.0% YoY during 4Q21, a figure that will have to be ratified by the Issuing Institute when it publishes the annual National Accounts (March 18).

However, it was not all good news. First, the figure was below market expectations (although almost in line with our estimate), unlike the upside surprises we had seen in recent months. Second, relative to November, the series declined by 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis, after seven consecutive increases, causing the growth rate to slow to 9.1% y/y (from 12.8% y/y). Third, when we disaggregate the variation, although significant gains were observed in most sectors in the year-on-year comparison, at the margin they were not so good: Trade fell again (-1.4% m/m YoY), as did Goods production (-1.8% m/m YoY), which could only be partially compensated by Services (1.4% m/m YoY). This continues to shape the scenario of economic slowdown that we have been seeing in recent months, which is likely to be exacerbated when we start to know the figures for 2022, as we do not have the elements that explained the expansion in 2021.

So, what now? Our scenario envisages a first quarter in which some dynamism will still be evident, which will basically be explained by the basis for comparison. However, once this effect is exhausted, the projections are not so auspicious. Thus, we see a technical recession at the end of the third quarter as quite probable and, what is more, negative variations of the Imacec towards the end of the year. Of course, this does not include changes in policies, implementation of new programs and/or changes in the expectations that would imply the installation of a new administration in the country or setbacks in the local or international epidemiological situation. 

Once the urgent matters have been dealt with, we must return to focus on what is important. The burden of low growth will continue to generate a feeling of unease among the population, of non-fulfillment of promises or, even worse, of forcing their fulfillment through populist and irresponsible measures. This will leave us at a worse point than at the beginning, negatively affecting much more those who were supposed to benefit. No one is saying that growth for the sake of growth, or that our goal should be to repeat the 12% (spoiler: it is not going to happen), since it is key that it be an integral, inclusive growth, in which everyone feels they are part of and that does not exclude groups simply because of revanchism or ideologies. The pandemic has been terrible for everyone, it is true, but it can also be taken as an opportunity to generate leaps in productivity that we had not dared to make, but that had to be made due to the urgency (hello, teleworking). This is everyone's task, not only of the new government, but also of our business class and of us, including me, the citizens.

Nathan Pincheira 

Chief Economist of Fynsa