Fynsa
Consumers have shown significant resilience, but there are certain things that cannot be ignored, such as lower incomes and reduced savings.
As usual, I wanted to summarize our main projections for 2023, at the risk of being overcharged in twelve months' time.
The central bank will consider factors other than inflation for its monetary policy, such as the current account deficit, financial conditions and international trade.
The data showed that inflation is far from being a problem.
The risk of reducing the MPR and then having to reverse it due to a misreading of the information is much higher than leaving it at 11.25% for longer than appropriate.
The important question that arises with respect to the Central Bank's policy is how long monetary tightening will be on hold.
There is still a great deal of uncertainty about how far rates could go in the current cycle.
We must not forget that, once the immediate imbalances have been resolved, the growth capacity of our economy is very low.
August's surprise does not even give reason to hope for a softer deceleration: we preliminarily estimate a variation of Imacec in September between -2% and -1.5% YoY.
While the Central Bank is doing everything possible to lower inflation, the work of the public and private sectors must focus on productivity, the only way to generate wealth without boycotting the work of monetary policy.
