Fynsa
The flow of buying continues to dominate the foreign exchange market, despite sales by both the Central Bank and the Treasury.
In a context of rate cuts by both the Central Bank and the Federal Reserve, it will be especially important to have certainty as to how our currency will move.
The spread between the local rate and the FED rate has been compressed, but the game will continue until we have clarity on the beginning of the rate cut in the US and we discount the level to which the Central Bank will have to adjust rates.
For the time being, it is hard to think that the market alone will continue with rate rallies without a more committed Fed on the way to easing interest rates.
Having seen levels of 780 in the first half of the year and with the Central Bank lowering rates ahead of the rest of the economies, we should see the exchange rate converge to the lower end of this year's range.
The expected drop in the price of the dollar to the vicinity of 800 should not occur until next year.
The current scenario considers the worst conditions for the Chilean peso, with a local rate that should reach 8% by the end of the year.
It seems fair to ask whether the dollar's uptrend will continue or whether these are levels to exit long positions or perhaps bet on declines.
As long as the U.S. economy continues to prove more resilient, and if monetary policy cannot quickly become more accommodative, it is difficult for the dollar to sell off substantially.
