Fynsa
The superior performance of ex-US markets in 2025 would extend into 2026, especially in emerging markets, also leveraged by a weaker dollar and more attractive relative valuations.
It seems that after years of constitutional uncertainty and failed reforms, the market perceives greater institutional clarity, coupled with converging downward rates. If these conditions consolidate, the dollar could move toward more "normal" ranges, even closer to $800 in the medium term.
Despite the political noise, the dollar has shown no major shocks in Peru during 2025, thanks to a favorable international environment and timely economic decisions.
The Central Bank announced that it will begin a new international reserves accumulation program, with daily purchases of up to US$25 million per day, starting on August 8, with a duration of 3 years. From our projections, this program was expected. What is striking is the timing.
The dollar remains high, but the fundamentals behind that level may be starting to change, with key movements in rates, commodities and the political landscape.
The dollar remains high in Chile, but fundamentals are starting to line up for a possible break towards $900.
More than a symbolic gesture, the measure represents a concrete step towards normalization. This greater flexibility allows the exchange rate to adjust according to market conditions, without abandoning stability altogether.
It would not be unusual to see agreements that put an end to the current nervousness, with common sense taking precedence. The experience of President Trump's first term proves this.
Donald Trump's foreign policy has defied convention, which could pave the way for a new kind of leadership more focused on domestic needs.
The Chilean peso is particularly vulnerable to a new tariff escalation by the Donald Trump administration, given its direct link to China.
