Fynsa
La entidad estima que la agenda procrecimiento podría impulsar la inversión, mientras el Banco Central mantendría las tasas sin cambios durante este año.
Five consecutive declines in the Imacec and a second half of the year that’s off to a rocky start. Fynsa’s analysis lays out the numbers and predicts that the expected recovery will likely have to wait until 2027.
The Central Bank adjusted its growth and inflation projections in the June IPoM, but the main change was something else: a more balanced assessment of risks that leaves room for a neutral monetary stance.
International weather models predict a nearly 90% probability that an El Niño event will develop this winter, with an intensity that could be the strongest in more than a decade. For an economy that is already starting off on a weak footing in 2026, the timing could not be worse.
April confirmed what previous months had already suggested: the Chilean economy is failing to gain the expected momentum. The same supply-side factors continue to weigh on the economy, and the growth forecast for 2026 is being revised once again.
Fynsa and Alessandri Abogados brought together experts in economics and taxation to analyze the current local and international landscape, the progress of tax reform, and its potential impact on businesses, investors, and markets.
The Chilean economy started 2026 with a 0.5% contraction, worse than expected. Sectors such as mining, agriculture, and fishing account for much of this decline, but underlying indicators point to a more challenging year than projected.
The June CPI showed a monthly decline of 0.4%, well below our and the market's estimates. Although the aggregate result seems significant, the underlying indicators soften the analysis somewhat.
After months of weak numbers, some recent data point to an improvement in activity. But before celebrating, it is worth taking a cautious look at what lies behind the apparent upturn.
This scenario raises concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability, with a direct impact on political decisions and the financing of public services.
