Fynsa
An intense week lies ahead, on the eve of one of the eve of one of the most important elections in Chile's recent history, but we are also going to know a series of relevant economic data and publications for the second part of the year and for 2023.We are also going to know a series of relevant economic data and publications for the second part of the year, as well as for 2023.
First, on Tuesday 30, we will know the employment situation for the mobile quarter ending in July, in which we expect the weakness of this market to continue. quarter ending in July, in which we expect the weakness of this market to continue, probably with another net destruction of jobs, and also an increase in the unemployment rate, which we estimate to reach 8.0%. increase in the unemployment rate, which we estimate to reach 8.0%.. This dynamic is only a reflection of the weakness shown by the activity and the poor expectations in this regard, mainly related to investment.
Next, on Thursday, July 1, the Central Bank will publish the Imacec for July, which we project will be the last to show a positive variation in this growth cycle that began in March of last year.which we project will be the last to show a positive variation in this growth cycle that began in March of last year. Thus, the approximately 1.5% YoY that the economy would have grown during the month will be the last important data that the Central Bank will count on for both the monetary policy meeting on Tuesday 6th and the IPoM that will be published the following day.
With inflation continuing to run high (1.4% m/m in July), the Governing Body faces the difficult decision of continuing to tighten monetary policy in a context of weak domestic demand. to continue tightening monetary policy in a context of weak domestic demand.. In any case, we believe that the cards are relatively well played in this regard and, barring something very unexpected, the Board will announce its decision to hike monetary policy, the Board will announce its decision to hike the TPMR to 10.5%, mentioning that there is likely to be a move left.The Board will announce its decision to hike the policy rate to 10.5%, mentioning that there will probably be one additional move left, which we project will leave the policy rate at 11% at its current level. rate at 11% at its October meeting..
In the new macro framework, we see little change to the expected growth for 2022, but we do not rule out a further downward adjustment for 2023, especially in terms of investment. Undoubtedly, the inflation inflation you are projecting should be on the upsideI think that your current scenario seems totally out of context. I think what will be really interesting will be to see your price projection for 2023considering the lower local pressures, but the uncertain evolution of this phenomenon at a global level. That will be crucial when projecting the speed with which he will normalize monetary policy.
Despite the timing, we see it unlikely that the report will include substantial changes considering the results of the September 4 plebiscite, regardless of which option wins. This is not only because it will be difficult with so little information, timeframe and high volatility to draw conclusions that can be based on such a report, but also because of the well known policy of the government of the country.This is due to the monetary authority's well-known policy of abstaining from this type of events. This does not mean that it will not eventually incorporate whatever the result implies, but this may be a matter for the December IPoM.
Finally, on Thursday 8, a new CPI release, this time corresponding to August, which we project would have increased 0.9% m/m, year-on-year, touching 14%, which would be the peak, at least for the time being.at least for the time being. The composition will continue to migrate towards supply components, with the Transport and Food divisions leading the increases.
For the time being, we can only wait.
