Fynsa
In our opinion, the latest INE sectoral figures give us a picture closer to stagnation than to buoyant growth.
January's inflation surprised to the upside, but we must remember that a new basket for measuring inflation debuted, along with a new base 2023 = 100, which additionally incorporated methodological changes and improvements.
The main question the market is asking after the January CPI is whether this surprise puts the decline in inflation at risk.
It is important to mention that we do not believe that inflation is over and that the risks of persistence and slower normalization are still present.
Although the "less bad" Imacec data would avoid technical recession, this does not mean that there is reason for optimism.
We must not lose sight of the structural impacts of the social explosion and the pandemic on the labor market.
