Fynsa
During the week we received the employment figures from the INE (National Statistics Institute) for thecorresponding to the mobile quarter ended in March. On this occasion, we learned that the unemployment ratethat is, the ratio between the unemployed and the labor force, reached 7.8%, 0.3 percentage points higher than that observed in the previous quarter. reached 7.8%, 0.3 percentage points above the figure observed in the quarter ending in February, and slightly above our expectations (0.3 percentage points).and slightly above our expectations (7.7%). The increase in the margin can be attributed to an increase of 62 thousand people (+0.7%) to the labor force that could not be compensated by the increase of 29 thousand new jobs (0.3%). As a consequence, 33 thousand people were added to the unemployed, totaling approximately 744 thousand..
Arguably, this increase is bad news, but we know that assessing the unemployment rate alone to draw conclusions about the health of the labor market is incomplete.But we know that evaluating the unemployment rate alone to draw conclusions about the health of the labor market is incomplete. First of all, we should not forget thatFirst of all, we should not forget that monthly variations are often explained by seasonal factors rather than underlying economic dynamics.. To "clean up" for these effects, we can make a seasonally adjusted comparison or, on the other hand, compare with the figures for the same period of the previous year. In doing this exercise, we obtain mixed results: on the one hand, 452 thousand people have entered the labor force in one year, which has been more than compensated for by the increase in the number of new entrants.This has been more than offset by new jobs, which total 649,000. This has resulted in 197 thousand people ceased to be unemployed in this period.. Reflecting the above, the unemployment rate decreased by 2.6 percentage points over twelve months.. On the other handOn the other hand, with respect to the previous month, controlled for seasonal effects, the labor force increased by 0.8%, higher than the 0.7% increase in the employed, causing the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate to rise from 7.7% to 7.9% (own estimates). This continues to show that, although better than last year, the speed of employment recovery is slowing down sharply.This has also been evidenced in qualitative surveys, such as the business perceptions report business perceptions report for February.
In the measure that the media has liked the most in recent times, there are still approximately 266,000 jobs to be recovered to reach pre-pandemic levels, or 202,000 for those approximately 266,000 jobs are still to be recovered to reach pre-pandemic levels, or 202,000 to those prior to the social explosion.. However, to recover the eventual jobs that would have been created, considering the increase in the economically active population and also the levels of economic growth, we would be talking about 484 thousand jobs, we would be talking about 484 thousand jobs, widening the gap of what was created before the social outbreak.This would widen the gap of what was believed to be necessary to return to "normality".
We have been warning about this situation for several months noweven when the economic growth figures and the strong recovery of employment in 2021 clouded us with respect to the more structural impacts that the social explosion would have had on the economy. social outburst and the pandemic on the world of work in the country. The sudden changes that both events demanded from companies changed the labor needs of companies in terms of skills and preparation, not to mention that many processes were automated given the difficulty of having workers, given the mobility restriction measures implemented. This is particularly important in the field, since 102 jobs have been lost since March 2020. 102,000 jobs have been lost since March 2020, being by far the most affected sector..
Temporary economic aid is useful during emergencies, but a country cannot live on temporary aid.. The best mechanism to improve the social welfare of families, to promote mobility and reduce inequality is to promote more and better jobs, providing facilities to access themThe best mechanism to improve the social welfare of families, promote mobility and reduce inequality is to promote more and better jobs, providing facilities to access them, but also conditions for companies to be able to offer them. Only in this way, each one of us will be able to have a job..
