Fynsa
Nathan Pincheira and Humberto Mora, of Fynsa, provide their outlook for the economy and investments in the first half of 2023 and for the months ahead.
Our Softlanding baseline scenario is based on a moderation of inflation and greater resilience of activity.
This is a real estate business model consisting of residential buildings designed exclusively for rental purposes.
Speeches and communications from the Central Bank Board have only been along one line: it is still too early, risks are high and policy error can be very costly.
We maintain our expectation that possible movements in the TPM will have to wait until September.
The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Price Index - which encompasses all major commodities, including metals, energy and food - has fallen 10% since the beginning of this year.
Despite the signs of weakness in the economy, we believe that the Central Bank will maintain a more conservative stance: if warranted, it will prefer to cut the rate more aggressively when the time comes, rather than start the cuts earlier and more timidly for fear of making a mistake.
Prudence indicates that we should wait for the end of the rate hike cycle to return to investing, but beware that time deposits no longer pay what they did a few months ago and inflation is also falling.
The Central Bank will remain steadfast in its goal of propping up inflation towards its two-year target of 3%, and until that happens, it will not begin to reduce the monetary policy rate.
In the short term, the good news should continue: for May we expect the CPI to increase 0.2% with respect to April, which would bring the year-on-year variation to 8.8%.
