Fynsa
In our base case, we expect some moderation in U.S. interest rates in the coming months and recommend considering moving gradually out of cash into longer maturities and corporate bonds.
The Fed's actions led to a significant sell-off in dollar rates, with the 10-year treasury rate at a high of 4.50%, a level not seen since 2007.
We can expect that, as far as possible, the next cuts in the TPM will remain in the more conservative range of the corridor presented in the last IPoM.
The market for this key fuel for the economy faces restrictions.
If elected, Javier Milei will have to convince Argentina and investors that his proposal to dollarize the economy is serious and responsible in order to lower the inflation that Argentines have suffered for decades.
And suddenly, interest rates are important again.
Despite higher financing costs and higher home prices than two or three years ago, the U.S. residential market will continue to perform well.
The likelihood of a further hike or a further pause at the Fed's next September meeting will depend on data developments.
Nathan Pincheira and Humberto Mora, of Fynsa, provide their outlook for the economy and investments in the first half of 2023 and for the months ahead.
Our Softlanding baseline scenario is based on a moderation of inflation and greater resilience of activity.
