While there are signs that inflationary pressures have begun to decline, rising prices remain a central focus of political and economic discussions. However, one of the main drivers of one of the main drivers of inflation, the rise in commodity prices due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine more than a year ago, appears to be a thing of the past.

The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Price Index - which covers all major commodities, including metals, energy and food - has fallen by 10% since the beginning of the year. The main reasons for the decline? Several, including lingering fears of a global recession, a less-than-expected recovery in China's post-pandemic economy and the normalization of supply chains following bottlenecks in 2022, which is reducing logistics costs. Consultancy Drewry's World Container Index fell from about US$7,600 per 40-foot container a year ago to just under US$1,700 in early June.

Are we facing the end of inflation? It is too early to declare victory. The war in Ukraine continues and will remain a factor of risk and uncertainty, while the energy market may continue to provide surprises, as shown by the recent announcement of a sharp production cut by Saudi Arabia.The energy market may continue to provide surprises, as shown by the recent announcement of a sharp production cut by Saudi Arabia. And, a factor not to be forgotten, the effects of climate change. There are fears, for example, that the Panama Canal will be forced to reduce the number and draft of ships transiting it due to the drought affecting Central America, which has reduced the availability of water for navigation, affecting the global supply chain.