Fynsa
The attractiveness of time deposits is fading and leads to the search for riskier instruments with higher returns.
No correction has been observed so far in the equity market, despite technical indicators that the market is overbought and at all-time highs.
The so-called Sun Belt concentrates the best investment opportunities.
The December CPI surprised the market with a 0.5% m/m drop; in this scenario we believe there is room for 100bp cuts or even a 125bp run.
The market seems to be part of those who see the change of leadership in Argentina as an opportunity because, after the victory of the libertarian Milei, a strong recovery has been observed in the price of that nation's assets.
Rising productivity in the U.S. labor market brings some relief to policymakers.
Those who have been invested in fixed income this year have had a hard time and are only now beginning to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
In our base case, we expect some moderation in U.S. interest rates in the coming months and recommend considering moving gradually out of cash into longer maturities and corporate bonds.
The Fed's actions led to a significant sell-off in dollar rates, with the 10-year treasury rate at a high of 4.50%, a level not seen since 2007.
We can expect that, as far as possible, the next cuts in the TPM will remain in the more conservative range of the corridor presented in the last IPoM.
