Fynsa
La entidad estima que la agenda procrecimiento podría impulsar la inversión, mientras el Banco Central mantendría las tasas sin cambios durante este año.
The Central Bank adjusted its growth and inflation projections in the June IPoM, but the main change was something else: a more balanced assessment of risks that leaves room for a neutral monetary stance.
This week, at the April Monetary Policy Meeting, the Central Bank’s Board agreed to keep the monetary policy rate at 4.5% once again. The decision was adopted unanimously by its members, but we feel that something has changed…
It is not entirely clear which variables or trends will be taken into account when deciding whether to change or maintain the current course of monetary policy. In this brief article, I will attempt to outline what I believe will be included in the dashboard that the Central Bank’s Board will be reviewing when it meets.
After roughly five years, inflation has fallen back below 3%. The current situation is not necessarily permanent, and both monetary and fiscal policy require constant work to meet their objectives.
Inflation cannot be controlled with a magic wand; it is controlled by working every day to achieve this. Even when others do not cooperate.
The CPI rose 0.3% compared to the previous month, which was in line with our expectations, although slightly above market expectations. With this, the year-on-year variation remained at 3.4%, increasing expectations that the elusive 3.0% will soon be reached.
The June CPI showed a monthly decline of 0.4%, well below our and the market's estimates. Although the aggregate result seems significant, the underlying indicators soften the analysis somewhat.
The April CPI surprised by coming in below expectations, reinforcing the trend of inflation moderation. Convergence towards the target seems to be progressing, with no significant pressures on the near horizon.
Monetary policy remains unchanged in a global environment marked by trade tensions. The Central Bank prioritizes prudence while domestic activity and inflation continue to show no clear signs.
