Fynsa
Less than a month to go before the exit plebiscite and the political atmosphere could not be more tense. Accusations of promoting false news, claims of possible interventionism, willingness (and not so willing) to reach previous agreements and a long etcetera.
The country is preparing to, once again, go to the polls. Unlike all processes since the return of democracy, for the first time the vote will be mandatory with automatic registration, which "should" increase citizen participation. the vote will be mandatory with automatic registration, which "should" increase citizen participation.
You may or may not agree with them, with their methodology, or you may distrust those who conduct them, but the polls, in a transversal manner, show an advantage for the rejection option of more or less 10 points over the approval option. It is important to take into account that this difference is produced when asking "which option will you choose, vote or lean towards on September 4, 2022?" or some variant of it, and that, faced with this question, the percentage of undecided people fluctuates, the percentage of undecided voters fluctuates between 13% (Pulso Ciudadano) and 19% (Criteria).
In this context, an important part of the efforts, and of course, of the commands, has been to try to capture this segment, but also to try to diminish the losses in case the opposite option to the one they promote is the chosen one. And the scenario is more uncertain than ever. How, did I not just mention that the distance between the options was 10 points? That, in other elections, would have seemed irretrievable.
However, and in one of these same polls, it asks. "Who do you think will win the September 4 plebiscite?", with different results. In fact, under this question, the July Criteria under this question, the July Criteria survey gives a 7-point advantage for approval (43% vs. 37%), after having projected a technical tie in the July version. Cadem (Aug. 8) predicts an 8-point difference for rejection (50% vs. 42%), after also predicting a technical tie in its previous edition. Several researches have shown that this form of questioning predicts results better than simple voting intention (Rothschild and Wolfers, 2012) by considering more information than that of the simple voter, incorporating what the respondent knows about his/her relatives, acquaintances, colleagues, etc. Given the above, it seems that nothing is settled yet.
And this seems to be the market's view on the matter.. At the beginning, we were struck by the insensitivity of asset prices after the publication of one poll or another, unlike what we observed during the presidential race, especially during the first round. This, added to the fact that, regardless of the result of September 4, everything seems to indicate that the constituent process does not end there, since a large majority of citizens (68% according to the most recent Cadem) think that, regardless of the Constitution that will govern us (or continue to govern us), it needs changes, corrections and improvements.
