Fynsa
There's less than a month left until the referendum on leaving the EU , and the political atmosphere couldn’t be more tense. Accusations of spreading fake news, complaints about possible interference, efforts (and a lack thereof) to reach prior agreements, and a long list of other issues.
The country is preparing to go to the polls once again. Unlike all previous elections since the return to democracy, for the first time voting will be mandatory with automatic voter registration, which “should” increase voter turnout.
You may or may not agree with them, with their methodology, or distrust those who conduct them, but across the board, the polls show a lead of roughly 10 points for the “reject” option over the “approve” option. It is important to note that this difference arises when respondents are asked, “Which option will you choose, vote for, or lean toward on September 4, 2022?” or some variation of that question, and that, in response to this question, the percentage of undecided voters ranges from 13% (Pulso Ciudadano) to 19% (Criteria).
In this context, a significant part of the efforts—and, of course, those of the campaign teams—has been to try to win over this segment, but also to minimize losses in the event that the alternative to the option they are promoting is chosen. The fact is, the situation is more uncertain than ever. What do you mean—didn’t I just mention that the gap between the options was 10 points? In other elections, that would have seemed insurmountable.
However, in one of these same polls, the question is asked: “Who do you think will win the September 4 referendum?”—with different results. In fact, in response to this question, the July Criteria poll shows a 7-point lead for the “yes” side (43% vs. 37%), after having projected a virtual tie in its July edition. For its part, Cadem (Aug. 8) forecasts an 8-point lead for the “no” side (50% vs. 42%), after also having predicted a technical tie in its previous edition. Various studies have shown that this way of asking the question better predicts results than simple voting intention (Rothschild and Wolfers, 2012) because it takes into account more information than that of the individual voter, incorporating what the respondent knows about their family members, acquaintances, colleagues, etc. Given this, it appears that nothing has been decided yet.
And this seems to be the market's view on the matter. At first, we were struck by how unresponsive asset prices were following the release of various polls, unlike what we observed during the presidential race, especially during the first round. This, combined with the fact that—regardless of the outcome on September 4—everything seems to indicate that the constitutional process will not end there, since a large majority of the public (68% according to the most recent Cadem poll) believes that, regardless of which Constitution will govern us (or continue to govern us), it needs changes, corrections, and improvements.
