Private equity and venture capital investment in Mexico has shown moderate growth over the last five years (2021-2025), with annual investment volumes ranging from approximately $2 billion to $6 billion, according to data from AMEXCAP.  

In contrast, private debt (or private credit) is typically measured by credit to the private banking sector, which grew steadily from around MXN 4-5 trillion in 2021 to more than MXN 7.5 trillion in 2025, reflecting a much larger market but with lower percentage growth. 

Private equity investment in Mexico 

Private equity offers annual returns of over 20% in many cases, outperforming fixed income (around 8-10% nominal) and traditional equities, driven by innovation in fintech, digital retail, and manufacturing. 

• Nearshoring attracts foreign investment in logistics and medium-sized companies, with a private equity market valued at ~USD 9.4 billion in 2024 and a CAGR of 11.2% through 2033.
• Favorable government reforms and policies facilitate financing for scalable startups and ESG businesses.
• Economic impact: generates jobs, competitiveness, and expansion into new markets, attracting ~USD 6 billion in 2024 (the second-highest amount in two decades). 

Annual investment volumes (private equity) in Mexico 

• 2023: ~$2.089 billion invested in >190 companies.
• 2024: ~$6 billion, a 2.3-fold increase compared to 2023.
• 2025: Expectations of up to USD 5 billion (through Q3/Q4).
  Data for 2021-2022 shows post-pandemic recovery, with total AUM accumulating ~$71-73 billion committed historically. 

Investment in Mexican private debt 

Investment in private debt is attractive due to its combination of higher yields than government fixed income and greater diversification in a context of high interest rates. Although it does not dominate the total volume of investments (public debt and sovereign fixed income continue to account for the majority), it is promoted for its role in financing medium and large companies, especially in sectors such as manufacturing, nearshoring, and non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs). The latter contribute to the financing of Mexican SMEs. 

The debt offers net private returns of 10-15% MXN per annum in 2025-2026, outperforming government bonds (~8-9%) thanks to credit spreads that compensate for the moderate risk of solid issuers.  

• Financing for SMEs and corporations: Covers gaps not reached by traditional banking, with an expanding market driven by reforms such as the Fintech Law and greater institutional appetite (Afores, pension funds).
• Relative stability: Less volatile than equity, with protection against inflation and nearshoring that strengthens corporate balances.
• Diversification: Represents ~15-20% of institutional portfolios, reducing exposure to sovereign debt sensitive to fiscal policy (e.g., support for Pemex). 

Growth in private debt (private sector credit) 

Credit to the private sector (the main proxy for private debt) rose from averages of ~MXN 3-4 trillion in 2021 to MXN 7.56 trillion in December 2025 (~USD 380 billion at an exchange rate of ~MXN 20/USD). This represents ~56% of GDP in 2024, with an increase in corporate and non-financial debt. 

Performance comparisons over the last 10 years 

Looking at the graph and observing the performance of different types of investments, we can see how structured trust loans show a return of over 12.5% with moderate volatility. If we compare this with direct securitization, we see that the return is adjusted by 200 basis points, reaching average returns of 10.5% while maintaining medium volatility. If we look at direct debt to financial services companies (SOFOM), we see that the return reaches 18%, but the volatility is medium-high. Private equity investments such as real estate development have had returns close to 22%, but with high-high volatility. 

Why invest in Private Debt vs. Private Equity in Mexico 

Private debt generates stable income via contractual interest payments, has higher spreads or debt-related yields—guarantees or risk premiums, has a more limited start and end date and a clearer exit than capital, allows for periodic returns on both dividends and capital, does not have the uncertainty of an unclear exit, and does not require capital increases in the event of contingencies in capital investments. 

• Higher risk-adjusted returns: Covers financing gaps in SMEs and nearshoring, with asset protections (trusts) and even inflationary protections.
• Diversification: Reduce exposure to sovereign debt sensitive to deficits (e.g., Pemex), representing ~15-20% of Afores/institutional portfolios.
• Macro resilience: Historically maintains returns during recessions, with collateral guarantees on corporate bonds and promissory notes. 

Cristián Rodríguez

Country Head Mexico