Fynsa
Demographics are at a global turning point. According to the most recent United Nations projections (World Population Prospects 2024), the world is heading toward sustained population aging, with fertility rates at historic lows in most advanced and emerging economies. At the same time, the working-age population has already peaked or will do so this decade in most developed countries, marking a structural shift in global growth dynamics.
The World Bank has noted that Latin America is in an intermediate phase of this transition. The region still retains part of its demographic dividend, but it is shrinking faster than expected. This leaves a limited window of opportunity to boost productivity and investment before population aging begins to weigh more heavily on potential growth, fiscal spending, and social protection systems.
In the case of Chile, the process is even more advanced within the region. Both the World Bank and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) agree that the country is facing rapid population aging, with low birth rates and a sustained increase in life expectancy. This implies growing pressures on the labor market and trend growth, highlighting the importance of variables such as productivity, labor force participation, and human capital for sustaining long-term economic development.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that population aging tends to reduce the potential growth of economies due to slower labor force growth. This effect is already evident in advanced economies and is projected to intensify in the future unless it is offset by higher levels of productivity or labor force participation.
The impact is also financial. The OECD has noted that population aging increases the dependency ratio—fewer workers per retiree—which puts pressure on pension systems and reduces aggregate household savings. This has direct effects on capital markets and long-term planning, both in the public and private sectors.
In this context, even if birth rates were to stabilize today, the adjustment would be slow. It takes decades for new generations to fully integrate into the labor market. Therefore, the main mitigation tools remain the same: increased female labor force participation, migration, extending working lives, and sustained productivity gains. For investors, the conclusion is clear: demographics are no longer just a backdrop. They are a structural variable that is shaping long-term growth and returns.
Fynsa
