Fynsa
The first-quarter National Accounts released by the Central Bank revealed something we already knew, but that we cannot overlook. During the first quarter of the year, the economy contracted by 0.5% compared to the same period in 2025, a weaker performance than we and the market had expected (-0.3% y/y), based on the Imacec. All in all, this confirmed what was already hinted at in the reports on that indicator: the period’s poor performance was mainly due to weak performance in sectors linked to natural resources, such as agriculture, mining, and fishing. Additionally, within manufacturing, sectors linked to seafood products recorded declines, which amplified the weakness seen in this sector.
On the demand side, investment was less robust than in previous quarters, due to continued weakness in the construction sector, coupled with a slowdown in the machinery and equipment sector.
It is important to note that the poor first-quarter figures are not due to the current geopolitical conflict, but rather to an economy that was already showing signs of slowing down during the fourth quarter of 2025.
Despite this, on a seasonally adjusted basis, GDP fell by 0.3% quarter-over-quarter, a decline driven primarily by drops in exports and imports, along with a contraction in both components of gross fixed capital formation. When we add to this a drawdown in inventories equivalent to 1.5% of GDP, the outlook for investment does not improve.
In this context, and while the National Reconstruction Bill is being debated, achieving growth of 2.0% or more by 2026 is quite challenging. In fact, reaching that figure would require a significant acceleration in economic activity during the second quarter, which seems unlikely given the uncertainty caused by the external environment.
Finally, given the confirmation of the preliminary figures provided by the national accounts, we have accounted for the downward revision in our projection for 2026, adjusting the growth estimate to 1.7%.
