July 19, 2024 - 2 min

When will we reach the world's population peak?

Declining birth rates bring forward the time when the world's population will stop growing.

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The United Nations recently published the latest edition of its world population projections, the World Population Prospects, a document that is updated every two years. What is new in the 2024 edition compared to those contained in the 2022 and 2019 editions? Here we can see them:

World to reach peak population sooner than expected. The latest projections are that this will be reached in 2084, with a total population of 10.3 billion people. In the 2022 projections, this milestone was estimated to be reached in 2086, with 10.4 billion people. In the 2019 projections, the peak was estimated to be reached after the year 2100.

Population decline would occur in Asia, Europe, and Latin America and the Caribbean, while populations in Africa and North America would continue to grow beyond 2100, albeit at a slightly slower rate than projected in the 2022 edition.

According to the document, the main reason behind the expected reduction in the world population is by far the fall in the birth rate. Whereas in the 1960s this rate was 5 births per woman, today it is 2.3. In Europe, the Americas and Asia this rate is currently less than 2, while in Africa it is almost 4, but with a clear downward trend.

United Nations projections that China has already reached its population peak. As expected, India is now the world's most populous country.

The life expectancy of the world's population has recovered after the fall of the pandemic years. It now stands at 73.17 years, up from 46.39 years in 1950. North America leads the way in life expectancy, with 79.64 years, while Africa is at the lower end, with 63.84 years.

You can view the complete publication at World Population Prospects - Population Division - United Nations