Fynsa
Tuesday, February 25, a few minutes after 3 o'clock in the afternoon, Chile shut down. Probably, at the beginning we all thought that the microwave had been turned on with the dryer or the iron and that the "the plug had popped"as they used to say. Then, maybe it was something sectorial, a collision or a fallen pole. Until the news that it was something regional, and then national, began to spread rapidly.
Many rumors, few realities. Once again, WhatsApp chains with information of dubious credibility: that a substation had exploded, that fires had knocked down the lines or even that a certain comedian who had been a sad guest at the Viña del Mar Festival was to blame. Finally, a false alarm that the system detected as true left a large part of the country without electricity, which, added to a series of coordination errors, caused the contingency to last until Tuesday night and even Wednesday morning.
In this way, while we had a racconto at the beginning of the 19th century, several people began to ask me what could be the impact on economic activity as a result of the massive power outage in the country. In view of this, I think it is important to point out a few things to -more or less- get an idea.
The first thing to understand is that the month in which it occurs is importantThe first is to understand that the month in which it occurs is important, especially for impacts, for example, on education services (although it is not the only one). Since the vast majority of students are still on vacation, there is not much effect there, both in the seasonally adjusted monthly comparison and in the year-on-year variation. Second, time is relevantSecond, the time is relevant, since the decrease in working hours is smaller than if the cut had occurred during the morning. It is clear that this does not apply to continuous processes, but let us not forget that many of these sites have their own generators or have other energy sources, which is relevant in the case of mining. In fact, for the previous blackout caused by the storms in 2024, our estimate of the impacts ended up being much higher than the actual one, probably lessened by the above arguments.
To have an order of magnitude, one working day less, on average, has an effect of -0.5 pp year-on-year on activity. However, one working day less has dissimilar effects across sectors, as some may even benefit. If we assume that all impacts to sectors were negative, a maximum level could be -0.8 pp. If we consider that some sectors had no disruptions, a lower bound could be -0.2 pp. Now, taking into account only the half-day, we would limit the effects to a minimum of -0.1 pp and a maximum of -0.4 pp.
On a preliminary basis, our estimate for January stands at 2.1% YoY, while for February we estimate 0.3% YoY. If we apply to the latter an average impact (-0.25 pp), our projection for the current month would fall to 0.0% YoY.
Finally, I believe that we can rescue something positive from all this. Many times, the problem of project approval deadlines, the overlapping regulations between different State entities and even some refusals to projects despite the fact that they comply with all the regulations, was perceived as a problem "of others".
Beyond macroeconomic indicators and related news, there was no perception of the daily impact that the non-implementation of different investment projects could have on the daily lives of citizens. This massive power outage may change that, modify the perception of the need and benefits of investment, and even translate into laws or regulations that unblock initiatives that are currently waiting to be approved. I mean, to see the glass as half full.
