Air travel has a problem with greenhouse gas emissions. Airlines have promised to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, but the question is how. Batteries have weight and runtime limitations that prevent them from being used in large commercial aircraft, while hydrogen or green ammonia are still a long way off. The readily available alternative, which is already in use, is what are known as sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), but they also have a problem: limited supply.

SAFs are produced from various sources, primarily biomass (corn, algae, organic waste, used cooking oil), along with some emerging projects for synthetic fuels (which are produced by combining CO2 captured from the atmosphere with green hydrogen). In 2022, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), 300 million liters were produced—three times more than in 2021—but still far short of the industry’s needs. In 2023, it is estimated that SAFs account for only 0.1% of the aviation industry’s fuel consumption. To advance on its path to decarbonization, aviation will need an annual supply of 8,000 million liters by 2025, 23,000 million by 2030, and 449,000 million by 2050.

The futures market is very active. Microsoft, for example, has entered this market with a commitment to purchase emissions credits to offset the company’s carbon footprint. In August, the tech company signed an agreement with IAG (the parent company of British Airways and Iberia, among others) and the oil company Phillips 66 to co-finance the purchase of 19 million liters of SAF, in addition to an agreement with World Energy LLC to purchase carbon credits for 167 million liters of SAF over 10 years. Dozens of other large companies, such as Google, Morgan Stanley, McKinsey, and DHL, are involved in similar agreements. The goal is to stimulate investment in SAF projects and help lower their costs. Currently, the price of SAF is more than double that of conventional fuel.

In Latin America, Latam is the only airline that has set a specific goal: it aims for SAFs to account for 5% of its fuel consumption by 2030. But the problem is supply. “The question isn’t whether or not to use SAFs; the question is how,” said Latam CEO Roberto Alvo at a regional aviation industry conference in October.