Air transport has a greenhouse gas emissions problem. Airlines have promised to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, but the question is how. Batteries have weight and discharge time limitations for use in large commercial aircraft, while hydrogen or green ammonia are still a long way off. The alternative at hand, which is already being used, are so-called sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), but they also have a problem: limited supply.
FFS are produced from different sources, mainly from biomass (corn, algae, organic waste, used cooking oil), to which are now added some synthetic fuel projects (obtained by combining CO2 captured from the atmosphere with green hydrogen). In 2022, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), 300 million liters were produced, three times more than in 2021, but far short of the industry's needs. By 2023, UAS are estimated to account for only 0.1% of the airline industry's fuel consumption. To advance on its route to decarbonization, aviation will need a supply of 8 billion liters per year by 2025, 23 billion by 2030, and 449 billion by 2050.
The forward procurement market is very active. Microsoft, for example, has entered this market with a commitment to purchase emissions certificates to offset the company's carbon footprint. In August the technology company signed an agreement with IAG (parent of British Airways and Iberia, among others) and the oil company Phillips 66 to co-finance the purchase of 19 million liters of PBS, in addition to an agreement with World Energy LLC to buy carbon credits for 167 million liters of PBS over 10 years. Dozens of other major companies, including Google, Morgan Stanley, McKinsey and DHL, are involved in similar deals. The aim is to stimulate investment in PBS projects and help lower their costs. Currently, the price of PAS is more than double that of conventional fuel.
In Latin America, Latam is the only airline that has a set goal: it aims for UAS to account for 5% of its fuel consumption by 2030. But the problem is supply. "The question is not yes or no to UAS, the question is how?" Latam CEO Roberto Alvo pointed out at an airline industry conference in the region in October.