Fynsa
For some months now, we have been predicting that the economy would enter a recessionary cycle. Despite the good data we received during the first half of the year (and perhaps a little more), we knew that this good news was hiding a significant slowdown that was being masked by some statistical effects. In this context, our projections indicated that this cycle would begin in August, which, as we commented at the time, did not occur. However, this did not prevent September from starting with a series of negative variations.
Thus, the Central Bank announced that the Imacec for September contracted 0.4% with respect to the same month last year, which was above our expectations (-1.7% YoY) and those of the market (-1.1% YoY). This is a relevant surprise, given that, although we expected a negative variation, it was well below estimates. However, the economy went straight into contractionary territory, a situation not seen since February of last year. This was explained by a 0.2% m/m growth, the second consecutive one, probably the most surprising aspect of this release. Pending the publication of the National Accounts, GDP would have preliminarily increased 0.2% YoY during the third quarter of 2022.
In disaggregated terms, the Mining Imacec fell 0.1% YoY, explained by a minimal increase of 0.1% m/m seasonally adjusted. On the other hand, the Non-Mining component fell 0.2% YoY, mainly due to the contraction of Trade (-10.2% YoY) and Industry (-4.4% YoY). On the other hand, Services increased 2.9% YoY, which again would have been explained by Personal Services, specifically Education. As in the previous month, we seem to be a bit lost with that, especially because of when it would have been the complete normalization (or at least, similar) of face-to-face classes in educational establishments. Anyway, by its nature, it would be a transitory component. Eventually, we will compare pears with pears and this, apparently the last pandemic effect (knock on wood) will disappear and the most important sectors will be the ones that will dictate the behavior of the general index.
As mentioned in the opening paragraph, we continue to believe that September would have been only the first of many months that will show a negative variation. In particular, for October, we estimate that activity would have contracted by around 1.0% YoY. For the year, we put an upward bias to our 1.7% projection.
