Fynsa
Five consecutive declines in the Imacec and a second half of the year that’s off to a rocky start. Fynsa’s analysis lays out the numbers and predicts that the expected recovery will likely have to wait until 2027.
April confirmed what previous months had already suggested: the Chilean economy is failing to gain the expected momentum. The same supply-side factors continue to weigh on the economy, and the growth forecast for 2026 is being revised once again.
The February Imacec once again showed a year-over-year decline (-0.3%), which, unlike the previous month, came as a complete surprise. Now is the time to put our skills to work and try to minimize these effects on our performance.
During the week, the third quarter National Accounts were published, which provide a more consolidated view of the country's recent growth figures. While on net these are good figures, they are not sustainable over time, or at least not without generating macroeconomic imbalances elsewhere.
It seems to me that we have been unfair with the July activity data. It is true that it was below expectations and that it represents the lowest positive variation since February, but we believe that there are some elements to highlight, something that has been particularly complex during the last time.
Care must be taken when evaluating data at the margin, especially when the arguments that may be behind it are multifactorial.
After months of weak numbers, some recent data point to an improvement in activity. But before celebrating, it is worth taking a cautious look at what lies behind the apparent upturn.
Economic growth in Chile continues to be insufficient and structurally weak, highlighting the need for a change in the strategy for a more solid development.
In our opinion, the latest INE sectoral figures give us a picture closer to stagnation than to buoyant growth.
Our economy's low growth potential should be a top concern, regardless of what the monthly data may show
