Fynsa
In our opinion, the latest INE sectoral figures give us a picture closer to stagnation than to buoyant growth.
The low growth capacity of our economy should be a major concern, regardless of the monthly data.
The evolution of inflation facilitates communication in the face of an imminent cut in the central bank's TPM.
What the figures show is that the Chilean economy is stagnating.
Despite the signs of weakness in the economy, we believe that the Central Bank will maintain a more conservative stance: if warranted, it will prefer to cut the rate more aggressively when the time comes, rather than start the cuts earlier and more timidly for fear of making a mistake.
The drop in the year-on-year Imacec seems to tell a different story from that shown by the seasonally adjusted result compared to the immediately preceding period.
In the absence of further information, we do not necessarily agree with the market reaction, which improved its estimates for 2023.
Consumers have shown significant resilience, but there are certain things that cannot be ignored, such as lower incomes and reduced savings.
We continue to believe that September would have been only the first of many months that will show negative variation
August's surprise does not even give reason to hope for a softer deceleration: we preliminarily estimate a variation of Imacec in September between -2% and -1.5% YoY.
